Michael Burry is not out. His Stuffed Turkey comments sound like a prophesy. AI is evolving fast and not necessarily in the direction the current market understands. Beware no-see-ums. What if the current tech is a dead end, and the financials collapse? A big shift may become clear in coming months… and where to invest next! And let’s talk about bit-flips!
There is a lot of noise in Gilts these days. The danger is it derails national confidence – even though much of the clamour is twaddle. The reality is all Governments face challenges, but the UK’s Gilts market is much stronger and more resilient that the right-wing press would care to admit.
The UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicians were serious about repairing the political economy of the UK – it’s time for root and branch surgery on the “frictions” that leave the nation suffering Economic Dementia!
Markets drunk on expectations and hype will believe what they want to believe – but as bubbles pop and truths are exposed, then sentiment can shift suddenly. Yesterday’s market darlings become today’s scams. Who knew? Relax. The sun will come up tomorrow. Enjoy the show.
The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.
Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believe the scale of losses might be hidden. Will Private Markets trigger the next crisis? I doubt it.
The world has gone mad, but fear not, Scotland qualifying for the World Cup will trigger growth, prosperity and happiness (for a wee while – 3 games I expect). The imminent launch of Scottish KILTS bonds will open a Pandora’s box of difficult questions.
Headlines about a deepening stock sell off, the rising “fear” gauge, and unsustainable valuations, are dominating the news flow. Relax. End of the world market crashes happen all the time. Sit back and enjoy the show. Get your buying boots ready.
In bonds there is truth – at least there was until political campaigners realised what a powerful tool they might be to amplify political failure. Destabilising markets by roiling bonds is unlikely to end well. The consequences could be fearful.
Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, or too stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.
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