Buy Gold to fund Bottom Fishing!
Gold – can’t eat it, can’t use it, but its everything crypto never was: tangible, exchangeable, a store of value, and a kitty for when things get tough. In uncertain markets…. Don’t forget the yellow stuff.
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Bill Blain
ill Blain is a published author on financial markets, contributor and editor of the Morning Porridge. He is a well-known market commentor, and a practicing investment banker in the alternative private debt and equity sector.
His day job combines his role as Strategist for Shard Capital, the leading investment management firm, and heading the firm’s Alternatives Group – financing Private debt and equity deals, and direct lending transactions. His clients include sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, insurance and pension managers, credit funds and family offices.
Trains: An Open Letter to Paul Holmes, MP (Conservative)
I have worked in finance for nearly 40 years. I have withstood phycotic managers, overcome multiple business hurdles, survived a major health scare and triumphed as a small firm guy against big vested interests.. but I am pretty sure it will British Railways that will put me in a box. This morning a rant:
Don’t worry about the UK – I’ve got an idea…
Gosh… The Rest of the World wonders how the UK has suddenly become a corruption-raddled third world kleptocracy. The optics are terrible. Even the Russians are moving out! Fortunately, there may be a solution: let’s be British about it, and show everyone we can do political knavery better than anyone else!
Forget inflation – its interest rates that will set markets and drive new growth.
Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!
CoCos and AT1 – cheap or still dangerous?
Banks are as safe as houses, till the moment they aren’t. Investment banks think the AT1 hybrid capital market looks cheap on the basis higher rates are good for banks. Rising defaults.. not so much. Bank hybrid capital is a complex area and not for the faint-hearted or ill-informed.
Time for the UK to get honest about the crisis.
The UK stock market hit a new high yesterday! And its all due to Brexit – apparently? Sometimes we bet on red and it comes up black. As long as the UK remains delusional about making a bad call, the nation will continue to underperform and sink down the league tables. We could make national honesty a strength!.
Guest Post: Recession? Says Who?
Delighted to hand this morning’s Porridge to my colleague Julian Wheeler, who reminds us not to fight the Fed, making the argument against deep recession and for stock market upside. Markets are about differing views and perspectives – and despite my latent bearishness, I find myself in agreement with much of what Julian says.
Consumption is the crisis. Market doesn’t get it!
Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.