The AI infrastructure build out already dominates credit market funding. Now Nvidia will effectively securitise its chips to its market though a panel of private capital markets firms that lend it credibility. The worry is complex and appealing deal structures will simply hide the risks inherent in AI – and increase the likelihood of a correlated crash when something inevitably breaks.

Markets are all-a-wobble as the AI revolution morphs from a picks and shovels Klondike into a “who is going to make most money” proposition. About time. Who will be the winners and losers in the long-term. In the short-term there is going to be pain and losses as the current high-water retreats.

The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about.

There may be multiple storms and whirlpools on the horizon, but the market remains convinced it will weather them all. That’s a sign of dangerous times. There are times to let the boat run free, and times to trim the sails and slow before something breaks with catastrophic consequences: will it be the AI Bubble, Debt, Iran & Oil, or a No-See-Um?

The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change?

2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go...

The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with powerful bullies taking all they can while the weakest in society will wither. Is it a film script, or what’s happening now…?

The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will happen when the US economy is also past its top, and following the UK into maturity?

The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today.

I am genuinely excited by the SpaceX IPO. The valuation means I won’t touch the stock with a bargepole, but it should be a great business with multiple opportunities ahead of it. However, I suspect it will become another story where Musk promises much in terms of solutions which don’t get delivered.