The factor that’s enabled the extraordinary success and longevity of the AI bubble has been the willingness of the markets to finance it. What happens if the liquidity machine driving AI were to suddenly stop? As the limits of bond markets, private credit, and using insurance companies to park risk, become increasingly apparent – what would a liquidity event do to current markets? Ouch!

Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!

Did someone say Century Bond? What’s not to like about the bond market? Rates are going to fall! Everyone wants to buy credit (at historically tight spreads) and the biggest most successful firms on the planet are paying 70 cents over Treasuries for your money! What could possibly go wrong?

Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believe the scale of losses might be hidden. Will Private Markets trigger the next crisis? I doubt it.

The world has gone mad, but fear not, Scotland qualifying for the World Cup will trigger growth, prosperity and happiness (for a wee while – 3 games I expect). The imminent launch of Scottish KILTS bonds will open a Pandora’s box of difficult questions.

The AI Bubble floats on a wave of Confidence – confidence the global economy needs it, the USA will lead it, the hyperscalers and AI firms can afford it, energy is not an issues, and competition from China, tech evolution and quantum are not future problems. All the market sees is opportunity. We've been here before.

Markets feel increasingly nervous. Although someone has cranked up the party music to 11, and the euphoria is still pouring, concerns about banking and loan exposures are rising. If there is a wobble, then it’s likely to be leverage on leverage that sees a bunch of private credit lenders in trouble.

Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth gives a masterclass in how we should think about inflation.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 24th April 2025 – Private Assets, Contagion [...]

The narrative in US markets grows more improbable every day. Did Trump not threaten to sack Powell last week? And aren’t massive tariffs on China a guarantee of US victory? Apparently, that was just a dream sequence, and Bobby Ewing is about to step out the shower. Confused? You will be. Welcome to Trump – The Soap.