NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list.

England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins!

The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament.

The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with powerful bullies taking all they can while the weakest in society will wither. Is it a film script, or what’s happening now…?

How Iran Won Trump's War

PJ O’Rourke (deceased)

The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today.

Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just how sustainable US Bonds markets might be as the global economy shifts.

There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequences in terms of global power and hegemony.

UK Defence Minister John Healey’s resignation over the dearth of defence funding this morning will throw UK defence into turmoil and further undermine the flolloping Starmer Government. Gilts spiked higher on the news.

The UK’s Defence Investment Plan has been delayed yet again, mired in cabinet warfare on spending. The DIP will focus on big projects like a new fighter-jet but will make a nod to the lessons learnt in Ukraine. The big issue is how the defence industry will evolve away from Defence Primes towards financing the start-ups that can change the battlespace with new tech that is adaptable, available now, cheap and good-enough.