Blain’s Morning Porridge 14^th Nov 2025 – How low will Bitcoin go this time?

“Trading is playing market sentiment. Investment is about predicting the future.”

Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, or too stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.  

Link to PODCAST

Bitcoin is the ultimate trading asset. It is the pure essence of what a perfect market could be – a refined distillation of the beliefs and sentiment underlying it. BTC is largely untroubled by the difficult base questions that distort other assets, distractions such as the economy, monetary or fiscal developments, conflict and noise. At least that’s what it likes us to think. For an asset class that is supposed to be defi from trad money and the ructions caused by the evils of fiat monetary manipulation, Bitcoin is highly correlated to traditional market weaknesses!

I trade (modestly) in bitcoin. I buy or sell based on the degree of manic fantabulousness about its irresistible upside I find posted on trading sites and comments on articles. I’m thinking I may as well coattail their stupidity and unshakable conviction. I don’t believe any of the ridiculous Bitcoin liturgy – I’m just playing its boundlessly daft mood and sentiment. It’s fun because it’s frankly so silly.

For the believers, belief is everything – that bitcoin is digital gold, the antidote to the evil of fiat money, the future of money, its perfect structure means it is the perpetual and infinite magical money tree. Sentiment is all – HODL and ignore the heretics. And in that perfect world of belief and positive sentiment, BTC kind of worked… as long as you didn’t ask awkward questions…

What is the reality of Bitcoin? No idea and I don’t care, but would you pay $100k for a late 2000s Computer Game? Would you invest your pension in a 17-year-old beta-test computing concept which is clunky and slow, when the Chinese are apparently on the edge of cracking quantum computing? Probably not.

I’m happy to dismiss Bitcoin as libertarian balderdash and absolutely 100% nonsense.. but hey-ho… its amusing and I do like reading books about just how seriously the crypto-shills take themselves.

Somewhere in the middle of their unshakable belief and my contempt is the reality .. that to keep going up Bitcoin needs to constantly attract The Next Greater Fool… Just like any religion it seeks out the poor, the unfortunate, the unhappy, those suffering FOMO, to persuade them of infinite upside. Hence the remorseless tide of hype about institutional participation and adoption, upside on halfings, and all the utter nonsense, commentary and analysis proving BitCon is going to $1mm.

Yes, there has been adoption. Institutions do Bitcoin because their clients do. And if the president thinks it’s a good idea… why disagree with him?

Believe what you want to believe… but it looks like Bitcoin is broken. Again. Looks like sentiment has snapped, and belief is wavering. Bitcoin might do one of the deep dives back down to $20k or it might bounce back. Who cares? Any recovery will be fuelled by hype…

The reality is simple. Once again Bitcoin has run out of the Greater Fools. That might be temporary, but without the pent up money that fuelled the COVID boom where is the next liquidity boost coming from? (Which is why fears the Fed may not ease aggressively is the problem this time.)

That’s why the bitcoin commentariat is full of stuff saying this is a buying window, its cheap, this is the time to jump in and ride it back up. Clue: Wait. Buy it when it’s really cheap, not just wobbling. If there is a liquidity flood – that would be a potential buy signal.

Bitcoin now looks like a leveraged play on negative stock sentiment – down 20% as stock markets worry the Fed might not keep easing. If you are a holder of Michael Saylor’s Ponzi-esque Strategy (which pays investors by issuing pref stock), you are going to get hosed. If you though it was better than Gold, explain why Gold has outperformed some 60%? Some of the original crypto whales are finally selling coin from their long hibernated accounts – or has someone hacked them?

You have to laugh. And I do.

Bitcoin is and always was and will always be absolute bunkum. Since I first wrote about it in 2010 no one has ever got close to winning my £100 for defining something Bitcoin does better and legally. The tech is interesting – but I’ve got a Revolut card, and if anyone can convince me Tether is a better dollar than a dollar then I will eat my hat. Tokenisation? Why..? My mum used to collect Green Shield Stamps to get a discount at the Store. I get stars on my Waterstones card..

Bitcoin strikes me as the cockroach of the market. It is hard to exterminate… Therefore at some stage I expect to jump back in, and ride a future wave of hype exploiting FOMO back up to a new, new high. And the Crypto world will call that “adoption” or headline “crypto-cynic buys BTC”.

If you really want to know what’s happening in crypto-world, jump on any Bitcoin trading comment site and read the absolute bollchocks that passes for market analysis:

• “MNAV dynamics point to a snapback in strength returns..”
• “$126K peak done. Bearish consolidation $110K→$80K likely, driven by $19B liquidations & long-term whale selling.”
• “Bitcoin can go to $1 and Saylor is confident Strategy won’t liquidated.”
• “MSTR is a great investment, and the next rally will confirm that as easing pushes liquidity back into BTC.”
• “Bitcoin will hit $60k and $200k in 2026.”
• “Bitcoin is shifting from early holders to regulated institutions”
• “The derivative economy around BTC ensures its future upside.”
• “DATs are tapped out – ETF flows slowing”
• “As OG Whales exit, it frees liquidity and brings new leaders, creating broader base for rise to $1,000,000.”
• “Bitcoin now trades on fundamentals, not nostalgia”
• “Dr Craig White’s rolling iceberg orders…” (WTF?)

You go make sense of it… and please explain to me in the comments section….

Out of time, and have a great weekend..

Bill Blain

CEO – Windshift Capital

Author – The Morning Porridge

Partner – Shard Capital

Special Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital