Jeremy Hunt tried hard to be interesting, but it was all a bit forgettable. An election is coming. How bad will it be? As for selling Natwest to fund UK growth – has Hunt actually considered the outlook for banks as the risk outlook deepens?
UBS’s new $3.5 Bln ATI CoCo Bond was 10 times oversubscribed. It conclusively demonstrates the market not only has no memory, but very little understanding either. This is not a good time to be the very bottom of the bank subordination ladder.
Banker Bonus Caps: the only part of Liz Truss’ economic suicide plan to survive contact with reality! They were pointless, and utterly meaningless and nothing to do with why London is losing its place as the epicentre of global finance. Yet abandoning them is yet another Rishi Sunak mistake!
There is a crisis brewing – things are likely to get worse before they get better on the back of Political Dither, a Reverse Big Bang in the City of London, and the Escalation of the Middle East crisis threatens higher energy costs and inflation!
It’s International Talk Like A Pirate Day, which will make it interesting for UBS trying to persuade once-bitten, twice-shy investors to buy new AT1 CoCo Bond after what happened to Credit Suisse investors.. “Arrr… You know it makes sense, young Jim-me-lad… Shiver-me-timbers… “
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.
What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.
Don’t assume inflation is licked, don’t assume interest rates will stop rising, don’t assume there aren’t further bank failures to come, don’t assume politics and society will cope well, but don’t assume it’s all end of the world. In periods of financial uncertainty there is opportunity…
First Republic’s numbers show how close it came to failure – it’s a saga of stale management and bad banking, but reinforced by the pace of rumour and sigh on social media. Will it happen again? Blain’s Rules on Bank Investment may help you avoid the bad’uns..
