What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.
Don’t assume inflation is licked, don’t assume interest rates will stop rising, don’t assume there aren’t further bank failures to come, don’t assume politics and society will cope well, but don’t assume it’s all end of the world. In periods of financial uncertainty there is opportunity…
First Republic’s numbers show how close it came to failure – it’s a saga of stale management and bad banking, but reinforced by the pace of rumour and sigh on social media. Will it happen again? Blain’s Rules on Bank Investment may help you avoid the bad’uns..
Fears of a full-on Commercial Real Estate Crisis are mounting as rising rates, a dearth of credit and a record redemption schedule combine into a perfect storm – but the market is already expecting it, so what will be the credit event or no-see-um that tiggers a market meltdown?
Markets are taking a breather after the recent wobbles, but the threat board has never looked, well, more threatening! Relax. Go see Guys and Dolls instead and treat yourself to a great night out.. tomorrow it will be miserable again!
The current crisis (?) is another step in banking’s progress towards an evolutionary dead end. The future doesn’t need banks. It will need smart risk takers, and new ways to originate and distribute risk.. an opportunity for banks clever enough to evolve!
The Media love financial crisis – it sells. The reality is the need to understand, plan, prepare, and don’t expect anything you expected to happen, happen. Enjoy. Sun comes up tomorrow.
The Fed tries to be dovish to calm market fears, but banking fears and inflationary threats on the economy may lead us somewhere new: A Stagflationary Bust!
Just how vulnerable are banks to further contagion and crisis? With inflation still running loose, central banks still set to hike, while consumer and corporate pressures mount, the banking crisis may only just have started.
The “rescue” of Credit Suisse, thereby averting a European banking crisis, is getting less comment than the nixing of its $17.5 bln of CoCo Bonds. I’ve been warning about CoCos since 2011. Finally I got something right!
