Category Banks

Why we won’t fix the UK by selling Natwest to irrational retail investors….

Jeremy Hunt tried hard to be interesting, but it was all a bit forgettable. An election is coming. How bad will it be? As for selling Natwest to fund UK growth – has Hunt actually considered the outlook for banks as the risk outlook deepens?

Reverse Big Bang is coming, rising Political and Geopolitical tension, and Higher Energy Costs… Anyone for the last few choc ice?

There is a crisis brewing – things are likely to get worse before they get better on the back of Political Dither, a Reverse Big Bang in the City of London, and the Escalation of the Middle East crisis threatens higher energy costs and inflation!

Half Time Score – how is 2023 likely to shape up for markets?

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

The Phillips Curve – Just How Inappropriate a Economic Tool Is It?

Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.

The £5.40 Coffee in a paper cup spells the end of everything

What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.

Opportunities are all about confidence, so what fears will a record Gold Price trigger?

Don’t assume inflation is licked, don’t assume interest rates will stop rising, don’t assume there aren’t further bank failures to come, don’t assume politics and society will cope well, but don’t assume it’s all end of the world. In periods of financial uncertainty there is opportunity…

Bad Banks, Bad Management, Twitter and Blain’s Rules on Bank Investment.  

First Republic’s numbers show how close it came to failure – it’s a saga of stale management and bad banking, but reinforced by the pace of rumour and sigh on social media. Will it happen again? Blain’s Rules on Bank Investment may help you avoid the bad’uns..