The media has us all convinced Western Economies are on the verge of a bond meltdown. However, what is really happening is The Great Bond Market Normalisation – a return to real interest rates that reflect the global economy and where nations are. The big risk is that repricing government bonds will crash currently absurd valuations across other financial assets – precipitating a wider market crisis.

Is a financial crisis coming our way? US Debt, Inflation, Trade, Energy, AI concerns and the rest pushed the revealed wisdom of new Fed Head Kevin Warsh out the limelight last week. Bond yields continue to rise. There are now growing fears of slowdown, or worse. Cheer up! Not the end of the World. But if a financial crisis is coming it will reflect lessons from the past on liquidity, but to solve it we also must acknowledge how much the world has changed since the last one in 2008. This time it will be different!

One rule of finance is “follow the money”. The ructions and rising doubts on the sustainability of the US Treasury Market and dollar in the evolving post-US era economy means it may be time for investment transition strategies – where will the future lie? What aspects of US and other Western Democracies will thrive, and how much more investible will China and, perhaps, India become? What are the risks?

This week is going to be… “interesting”. Confidence in the US financial markets and system is under pressure. The US owes more than $40 trillion. Bessent’s intervention in bond markets has backfired, the market is waiting to judge new Fed Head Kevin Warsh, and Trump has kicked off a new trade war with Canada. The USA’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity of the Dollar, the Treasury Market, and Political Competency looks well-wobbly. Meanwhile, the latest documentary on Boeing shows how the myth of US exceptionalism is under pressure.

With US debt about the breach $40 trillion, Scotty Bessent intervened to stem rising long-end yields. The market loved it, but the reality is that distorting interest rates has all kinds of consequences. That includes the risk an economy focused entirely on financial returns isn’t spotting or addressing real world threats to jobs, growth, conflict, the environment and climate. Maybe it’s time to let rates normalise?

The factor that’s enabled the extraordinary success and longevity of the AI bubble has been the willingness of the markets to finance it. What happens if the liquidity machine driving AI were to suddenly stop? As the limits of bond markets, private credit, and using insurance companies to park risk, become increasingly apparent – what would a liquidity event do to current markets? Ouch!

Markets tend to regard Populist Politics as a threat. They risk destabilisation, dent stability and raise questions about competency. Although Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election, his brand is badly damaged and that puts Reform in trouble. The question is whether the traditional parties can regain electoral prominence and put in place the necessary policies to repair Broken Britain’s infrastructure and finances – and attract investment.

The real strength of the US economy is not its military or the dollar’s exorbitant privilege, but the depth of its capital markets - which have financed the most successful economy in history. The risk is not how large the US deficit is, but how sustainable are America’s capital markets to mounting fiscal pressures, market shifts and geopolitical forces?

The tide of American Politics has turned dramatically extreme in recent days. The narrative is no longer about why Trump is haemorrhaging electoral support but has shifted to whether the Democrats can unite to win the Midterms in November and present a credible challenge to Trump’s MAGA successor in the 2028 presidential election. The coming gladiatorial contest between Right and Left populists will be watched closely by concerned global investors.

Fifty years of political dither leaves the UK looking broken. Faced with massive constrains from taxation and bond markets, there are limited choices from tinkering with spending while trying to look good enough ahead of the next election. Britain needs something more radical – and a complete reform of the system and process.