Category Debt

Forget inflation – its interest rates that will set markets and drive new growth.

Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!

Consumption is the crisis. Market doesn’t get it!

Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.

Kwarteng wins Financial Idiot of the Year as IMF warns on the dangers of debt and swaps… and Buttcon worth $1?

Good is bad, and bad is good as Kwasi Kwarteng wins the Financial Idiot of the Year award as the IMF warns about the consequences and dangers of $80 trillion of hidden swap debt and rising global debt levels. Should we worry? Probably.

Halloween, and a scary market outlook indeed – but not nearly as bad as you may fear!

Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent,  confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.

What comes next? Markets are mean reverting, are you prepared?

Well, that was a fun week… but the UK’s travails are the tip of the iceberg of market pain facing the global economy. More political, geopolitical, liquidity and leverage driven crises are coming as markets reverse out the QE era. Don’t Panic!

The UK crisis: Questions that Must be Asked: How was it allowed to happen?

The UK confidence crisis is not over yet. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is saying nothing, hoping for stability. The Bank of England finds itself providing top cover by its willingness to hike rates. The Treasury Select Committee should be asking what advice the OBR, Treasury, The Bank of England and the Gilts Office gave Kwarteng.

UK Grieves as the Economic Crises Approach

As London grieves we’re not paying much attention to politics and markets – but we should. The outlook is deteriorating. Confidence is declining and will likely get worse if the new government’s lack of awareness and sensitivity continues.

Things are never as bad as you fear… are they?

The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?