Category Debt

Interest Rate Scenarios: Stick with the Normalisation Cure, or another Puff of QE Skunk?

Expectations of early interest rate cuts are high, especially as recession signals are set to rise through Q1 2024. Will Central Banks stay the course and normalise interest rates, or will be take the easy option of further low interest rate distortion?

Why we won’t fix the UK by selling Natwest to irrational retail investors….

Jeremy Hunt tried hard to be interesting, but it was all a bit forgettable. An election is coming. How bad will it be? As for selling Natwest to fund UK growth – has Hunt actually considered the outlook for banks as the risk outlook deepens?

Reverse Big Bang is coming, rising Political and Geopolitical tension, and Higher Energy Costs… Anyone for the last few choc ice?

There is a crisis brewing – things are likely to get worse before they get better on the back of Political Dither, a Reverse Big Bang in the City of London, and the Escalation of the Middle East crisis threatens higher energy costs and inflation!

As Always It’s All About Bonds – They Warn of Considerable Risk to Markets

The threat list to global markets lengthens, but the Truth will be found in the bond markets. Like inflation and rising rates, the effects of a bond market slide are lagging – It’s going to take other financial assets time to catch up on the bond crash!

Why the BBC is wrong about the UK’s Debt Cost, and DON’T PANIC about Bond Markets!

The markets are panicking about bond yields. There is little to panic about. Higher rates will normalise the economy – but the commentariat loves to make a problem into a crisis. Y’day the BBC got it badly wrong, confusing the cost of new debt with debt service costs.  

Debt is Not The Problem – Economic Management Is.  

Many market participants fear the rising quantum of Government Debt spells crisis across the globe. Tush and Nonsense. Debt is not the problem – markets exist to price risk. The crisis lies in economic management, and Political Risk!