Tensions between Moscow and Europe are rising. There are rumours of war. While Western nations seek to rearm and adopt the lessons learnt by Ukraine, a bubble has developed in Mil-Tec arounds autonomy and drones. Defence investment is not a speculative opportunity – but a key issue for the sustainability and longevity of nations. It’s a complex investment landscape that requires specialist expert knowledge.

One rule of finance is “follow the money”. The ructions and rising doubts on the sustainability of the US Treasury Market and dollar in the evolving post-US era economy means it may be time for investment transition strategies – where will the future lie? What aspects of US and other Western Democracies will thrive, and how much more investible will China and, perhaps, India become? What are the risks?

The Chinese will be delighted. Western Economies are increasingly polarised and fractured. The US president calls anyone opposing him a “Communist”. The Right Wing threatens mass deportations, while the new emerging Populist Left is demanding redistribution and equality. Destabilising Western Democracies through fake news and disinformation is destroying the resilience of nations to resist. How should markets react?

19 months of Donald J Trump have been extraordinary – the unravelling of alliances, the forever war with Iran, and the belated discovery that financial clout doesn’t translate into geopolitical power. While the Mid-terms may make Trump a lame-duck, the consequences of Trump will hamstring the USA for decades and colour a new economic reality.

2026 looks likely to be the warmest year ever. Oceans are charged with energy to drive ever larger storm systems. Wildfires and droughts are ravaging the land. What if this is only the beginning? What if the climate is about to stage a chaotic breakout? Just how resilient will humanity be to a war with an implacable enemy that will give no quarter? What might it mean for the economy?

The real strength of the US economy is not its military or the dollar’s exorbitant privilege, but the depth of its capital markets - which have financed the most successful economy in history. The risk is not how large the US deficit is, but how sustainable are America’s capital markets to mounting fiscal pressures, market shifts and geopolitical forces?

The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets.

The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about.

NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list.

England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins!