What should markets be thinking about Andy Burnham’s conference speech yesterday? Gilts look to be giving him the benefit of doubt. Good in parts? He spoke well, proposed some positive policies and ideas, and gave an impression of a confident, positive politician set to deliver. The real issue isn’t just can Labour hold the nation steady and reverse years of negativity and low growth, but can any of the other parties do any better given the constrained state of the national finances?

Europe is a diverse, culturally rich and fascinating continent but increasingly looks an economic basket case facing economic and demographic decline. Its suffering economic PTSD after successive shocks in Banking, Sovereign Debt and now Energy. Now it’s being squeezed between an unreliable USA and China’s proxy, Russia. Maybe that’s the challenge it needs?

The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of Trump. The Crypto and graft entanglements that envelop him have shattered what made him so successful. Farage is no longer one of us. He is Them.

The UK is not about to disappear in a puff of smoke because the Gilts Market is having a minor tantrum. But there is a serious Political Competency premium on Gilts, which will rise when the scale of Labour’s defeat becomes apparent, and the Starmer premiership is up against the wall. Trouble ahead.

Catharsis is a marvellous thing. Reform and the Tories will duke it out for the British right, leaving Labour to get on with ever-so-slowly trying to fix Broken Britain – which could be evident by 2029. A great political battle is in prospect. Bring it on!

The UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicians were serious about repairing the political economy of the UK – it’s time for root and branch surgery on the “frictions” that leave the nation suffering Economic Dementia!

Margaret Thatcher would have celebrated her 100th Birthday yesterday. She is widely considered the defining British politician of the post-war era. But it was a very different time, and we should not blind ourselves to the long-term consequences of Thatcherism. Decisions made over 35 years ago affect Britain today, and we exist in a very much less friendly and uncertain world.

The assassination of Charlie Kirk in the USA is a stark warning of rabid political polarisation. Here in the UK the marginalisation of the Tories, and Labour’s caution, has opened the door for Nigel Farage’s new populist Reform Party. How are markets likely to price a Reform Win in the run-up to the next UK election in 2029? To win without destabilising markets, Farage has much to do to establish its’ political credentials, competency and policy – and show that he has evolved.

The UK and Europe have signed a framework deal which should prove massively positive for both economies. It resets the UK’s place as a financial and politically sovereign nation close to the heart of Europe. That’s what Brexit always should have been – it’s going to trigger growth because it will boost CONFIDENCE!

Markets may become less frenetic now the initial Trump phase is over – but that doesn’t mean they get more stable. News flow and data will continue to show a world changing swiftly, where crisis stemming from US assets (watch Treasuries like a hawk), remains a high probability.