This is looking a critical week for AI. Some market watchers see last week’s wobbles as a brief bout of indigestion with the market poised for further gravity defying upside. Or have we already seen Peak-AI? The most likely clues on direction are not in stock prices, but in bond spreads, where traders are rightly concerned there is a mismatch between spending and likely revenues!

Elon Musk has been described as the biggest loser from the Blue Tsunami midterms – what will it mean for his firms’ valuations, and his future influence. We need to know what really went on between Musk and Trump. Even more critical is the utility of SpaceX’s technology and Starlink’s satellite constellation as a Strategic Resource. Some tough decisions, but sensible choices lie ahead.

All is not smooth in the credit markets. There are signs of change upon the waters and in the sky. Spreads are widening, liquidity has got tight, and now we have a fund in serious trouble even as corporates try to raise as much as possible before rates rise or markets stall. The hyperscalers are having to pay up for debt – and that’s likely to drag spreads higher. I see trouble ahead…

Democracy wins. Trump was rejected by American voters, but his legacy will remain. The damage to done to the economy, the institutions of state, the constitution, and global power will shape America and geopolitics for decades. It’s unclear how the rest of Trump’s lame duck presidency will play out, but Corruption and the nexus of Wealth and Power will come under massively heightened scrutiny. Should the next US administration nationalise SpaceX?

Today’s US Midterms are a Referendum on the Presidency – and will be consequential for global markets. The result will depend entirely how many Republicans are still minded to Vote for MAGA. They might want to think back to an earlier age, the Republican President Ronald Reagan, and ask what the current incumbent and Reagan have in common, if anything.

Rising market instability looks inevitable as the AI meltdown, the US Midterms and European political riots, and the geopolitical risks from the US vs China hegemonic challenge reach crisis points concurrently. It’s a classic Three Body Problem – making it almost impossible to logically predict what happens next. Sit back and watch for the opportunities – they will emerge, but not where you expect them.