The Chinese will be delighted. Western Economies are increasingly polarised and fractured. The US president calls anyone opposing him a “Communist”. The Right Wing threatens mass deportations, while the new emerging Populist Left is demanding redistribution and equality. Destabilising Western Democracies through fake news and disinformation is destroying the resilience of nations to resist. How should markets react?

19 months of Donald J Trump have been extraordinary – the unravelling of alliances, the forever war with Iran, and the belated discovery that financial clout doesn’t translate into geopolitical power. While the Mid-terms may make Trump a lame-duck, the consequences of Trump will hamstring the USA for decades and colour a new economic reality.

The factor that’s enabled the extraordinary success and longevity of the AI bubble has been the willingness of the markets to finance it. What happens if the liquidity machine driving AI were to suddenly stop? As the limits of bond markets, private credit, and using insurance companies to park risk, become increasingly apparent – what would a liquidity event do to current markets? Ouch!

Markets tend to regard Populist Politics as a threat. They risk destabilisation, dent stability and raise questions about competency. Although Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election, his brand is badly damaged and that puts Reform in trouble. The question is whether the traditional parties can regain electoral prominence and put in place the necessary policies to repair Broken Britain’s infrastructure and finances – and attract investment.

The AI infrastructure build out already dominates credit market funding. Now Nvidia will effectively securitise its chips to its market though a panel of private capital markets firms that lend it credibility. The worry is complex and appealing deal structures will simply hide the risks inherent in AI – and increase the likelihood of a correlated crash when something inevitably breaks.

2026 looks likely to be the warmest year ever. Oceans are charged with energy to drive ever larger storm systems. Wildfires and droughts are ravaging the land. What if this is only the beginning? What if the climate is about to stage a chaotic breakout? Just how resilient will humanity be to a war with an implacable enemy that will give no quarter? What might it mean for the economy?