If there is a 10% chance AI is going to kill us all, then that’s probably bad news for bond markets. There are a lots of things that threaten us, but fortunately most of them are quite unlikely. A 1 in 10 chance we’re all toast is not. Global markets will probably choose to look the other way, but how would your own investment decisions change if you knew the Terminator is about to knock on the door?

Friday is the 25th anniversary of 9/11. It was the worst of days. It changed the World forever. How has it changed America and what are the risks it raises for the future? Who won? America is a great and powerful nation – but is going through a painful period. What did Osama Bin Laden’s carefully calculated terror do to America’s future? The scars run deep. Who won?

The coming year is likely to be shaped by higher inflation from energy and El Nino, rising interest rates, “policy-mistake” risks, and revaluation risks as capital markets adapt to rate normalisation. Looming over it all be political noise. Understanding where we are, how we got here and what happens next will be critical.

Trump is the most unrestrained US president – yet is supported by the richest and most successful men in America even as we watch him upend everything the USA once stood for. What if Trump is just the front-man for a Regime that is changing the World - breaking traditional relationships and alliances to create a stronger America as China threatens to supersede it? Europe is struggling with the new rules of America’s primacy, the end of the Nato Era, the emergence of a new American hemisphere, and how nations should relate to the new Imperial USA. How these will all play in the Great Game to be Global Hegemon is as yet unclear, but the world is changing fast.

The media has us all convinced Western Economies are on the verge of a bond meltdown. However, what is really happening is The Great Bond Market Normalisation – a return to real interest rates that reflect the global economy and where nations are. The big risk is that repricing government bonds will crash currently absurd valuations across other financial assets – precipitating a wider market crisis.

Narratives are what drive stock markets. Robots are seen as a massive multi-trillion-dollar Total Addressable Market – with strategic and social implications that will utterly change economies. Musk expects to sell millions every year. The reality is likely to be very different – robotics and society will evolve and probably end up unlike anything we envisage today.