Well, it was interesting while it lasted. Bitcoin has given me plenty to write about these last 15 years. Up, down, up, down, and shake it all about. This tumble feels different. No one is trying to seriously defend it. The walls are down and Bitcoin may be about to vanish in a puff of logic… or will it?

Global Markets surge ahead. Bitcoin has been left behind. Yet again the crypto bubble has popped. All that’s holding it up is buy-the-dip greater fools, hope and belief – none of which are strategies for success. Time for a reassessment of what Bitcoin is and isn’t, and why it’s time to stop wasting energy on it!

Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, or too stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.  

The Americans have passed rules to regulate and define the crypto industry. The first rule of finance is all rules are arbitraged. The second is that regulation strengthens incumbents. Very, very different to what Nakamoto and the original crypto acolytes envisaged for free, decentralised finance! Ha Ha Ha!

StableCoins? I am told they are revolutionising finance. Really? Stablecoins and other tokens will replace money, stock, shares and everything else… apparently. But can someone explain, simply, in plain English, how, what, and why they are better than what already exists?

The last 4 months has been exhausting coping with change, uncertainty and chaos – yet markets have emerged basically unchanged. Stocks are flat and bonds around the same. Nothing to worry about? Or… should we remain concerned as the consequences play out?

Crypto looks to be in Free Fall. If it previous crashes are any guide, it will fall between 70 and 80% before it stages yet another improbable recovery, or will it? There is so much noise, manipulation and outright shysterism around Crypto it makes little sense to risk playing the greater fool and buying falling knives. That doesn’t mean you can’t still trade the market’s gullibility!

One man’s bubble is another’s irrefutable investment thesis. After a year when so many markets, and individual assets, have defied expectations and common sense, one stands out for its incredible and largely speculative upside – Bitcoin. No other “asset” so divides the market. Time for a deep dive into what it might and might not be.

Politics was an overarching theme in 2024 – and, regrettably, will remain so in 2025 as global investors figure out likely policy action by central banks and the growth outlook for 2025. “This time it’s different” (TTID) and FOMO remain the most malign forces acting on asset prices, but is a new full blown European Sov Debt Crisis also on the cards?

 Who would possibly want to be a billionaire? Hated by the mob, a victim of evil governments holding you back with tax threats while denying your basic human rights – like a platinum gold bank account! Give me poverty anytime…