Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone.

I am genuinely excited by the SpaceX IPO. The valuation means I won’t touch the stock with a bargepole, but it should be a great business with multiple opportunities ahead of it. However, I suspect it will become another story where Musk promises much in terms of solutions which don’t get delivered.

To understand markets and the economy you need to understand how it really works; the where, what, when, why and how of the frictions that make for imperfect markets interreact. That includes politics. But trying to explain these factors is now subject to Social Media censorship – the reality is a distributed Ministry of Truth straight out of 1984. Social media now determines who can talk about markets and what they can say. Referring to incompetent politics gets you banished to the outer limits of conspiracy finance!

Past performance is not a guide to the future. Tesla trades on a massive PE because folk believe Elon Musk will repeat his success in EVs across AI, Capacitance, Robotaxis, Autonomous Driving and Robotics. But hype, showmanship, undelivered promises and increasing competition are leaving his ventures in the literal rear-view mirror.

Stock markets are on a buzz. Central banks are expected to ease immediately. Joy unlimited. What war? Peace in the Middle East! Really? There are none so blind as salesmen wanting to talk a market higher.

Hype and reality seldom mix. Elon Musk is the exception that proves the rule. The Space X IPO is set to make him the first trillionaire – but what if Competition is already eating his lunch in space-based datacentres before he’s even looked at the menu? In the Tortoise vs the Hare space race – will Jeff Bezos emerge the winner?

Social media is deliberately addictive? Who knew? While markets barely reacted to yesterday’s Product-Liability award against Meta and Alphabet in California, the growing pushback against Big Tech will see valuation multiples diminish over the long run as increased regulation becomes inevitable. Perhaps it’s time to look at how Tobacco firms have evolved to understand the future value of Social Media parasites?

While global markets are fixated on the Gulf, cast a weather eye on the Eastern Pacific where a Super El Nino climate event is developing. It could lead to Climate Whiplash events in terms of flood, storms and drought, food inflation and increasing migration tensions. It never rains, but it pours – and that’s not necessarily good for the most important commodity on the planet: Water!

The War in Iran is a kinetic feature of the economic/hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. President Trump will lose because his Iran war is unwinnable. Iran won’t lose because it does doesn’t have to win. That’s a recipe for a forever war, and a definition of asymmetric warfare. The likely winner of a wider Economic War will be China. Energy and Supply Chains will determine the future.

Catharsis is a marvellous thing. Reform and the Tories will duke it out for the British right, leaving Labour to get on with ever-so-slowly trying to fix Broken Britain – which could be evident by 2029. A great political battle is in prospect. Bring it on!