3 Months after the election and the UK’s Housing Policy is still a mess. The Government needs to elevate Housing as a top priority status to solve the multiple economic crises ignoring it will create. There are simple effective ways it can do so - but it needs to be bold, brave and radical.

The market is distracted by the up, down, shake it all about noise in Tech. Watch banks! The US Fed passed all 31 major US Banks in its annual bank stress test. I can’t think of anything that could scare me more…

The markets have been casting a wary eye on rising CRE losses – figuring these may trigger a renewed bout of banking weakness, but the reality is the market has to cope with normalised interest rates and changed demand patterns. Its pain but also opportunity.

The Bank of England is concerned about financial institutional risk associated with the rapid growth of private capital markets. A PE or Private Credit market crash would trigger a liquidity event which spawns crisis, but also massive opportunity. It will be yet another consequence of regulation and mispriced money in the wake of the 2008 GFC!

Two things worry me: the consequences of a Commercial Property bust, and the potential of a US$ Bond Crash. Equities merely reflect dimly their relative value to real assets and rates – and will suffer accordingly. Not to worry though.. the IMF says no recession!

The UK’s failure to balance regulation, oversight, and planning is highlighted by insane plans to dig a non-economic quarry in the centre of a prosperous village with no upside except to prioritise shareholders over residents.

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

The UK housing market is at its’ highest income multiple since the 1850s, at a time when real incomes have flatlined for 2 decades, and mortgage borrowers are levered higher than ever – its set for a wobble, sustained only by supply shortages. If it crashes.. all bets on the UK will need re-examined.

Markets are in wait and see mode – inflation, rates, earnings and all the rest weigh upon them. Back in the real world, the economic reality for young workers trying to find housing security in London feels more and more broken.

Fears of a full-on Commercial Real Estate Crisis are mounting as rising rates, a dearth of credit and a record redemption schedule combine into a perfect storm – but the market is already expecting it, so what will be the credit event or no-see-um that tiggers a market meltdown?