Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better? The end of strong states often results in smaller nations competing harder to thrive, leading to competitive frictions!

That was an interesting weekend. Trump announces a blockade that will impact the whole Global Economy – and South East Asia and China in particular. At least Europe got some good news from Hungary. More instability forecast before Trump inevitably TACO’s again. Markets are getting bored of it – which means the consequences could be even more volatile! That could double up No-See-Um Risks.

The cost of Trump’s War on Iran is extraordinary - $1 bln a day plus. War Stocks are being consumed at incredible speed. A request for an additional $200 bln of funding is in the works. The nature of war has changed – it could prove phenomenally destructive, expensive and ruinous to winners and losers alike. Meanwhile the economic outcomes of the war remain in the balance.

The last two weeks have been fascinating. Iran increasingly looks a strategic blunder by Trump in the wider global hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. It increases the likelihood of instability, trade and economic disruption and the threat of kinetic conflict. Boy Scout time: Be Prepared.

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair has been rationalised as positive for stability and managing Trump. But will a new name on the desk means certainty will return? Nothing really changed within the Administration – Trump remains Trump and has a massive War Chest to fight the coming bitter Midterms.

Trump has shattered conventions on politics and diplomacy so why not financial markets as well? The Show Trial of Jerome Powell will see Trump seize the levers of monetary policy. For markets its dead simple – what will it mean for the economy and the rising prospects of a Stagflationary Bust in the US?

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

Gold Prices stumbled earlier this week. It is a bursting bubble? Nope. Markets will remain uncertain – while the world’s geopolitical polarity is shifting Gold remains the safe-haven play. That shift is being accelerated by events as the stability that fuelled the last 80 years of growth is undermined by bad politics and division.

The Gaza deal is an extraordinary win for President Trump. Banging heads together worked – and may have created conditions for the Middle East to move towards reconciliation. But, we had another “judder” moment as the trade conflict he triggered with China threatens to overturn the USA’s economic resilience.

Earlier this week the US Fed eased interest rates under pressure from President Trump. There are host of confusing signals around employment and price stability, but the Fed jumped anyway. The bond market sold-off – a polite growl that was just enough to warn it’s not happy about political interference and potential policy mistakes. When it barks.. it will be for good reason.