Delighted to hand this morning’s Porridge to my colleague Julian Wheeler, who reminds us not to fight the Fed, making the argument against deep recession and for stock market upside. Markets are about differing views and perspectives – and despite my latent bearishness, I find myself in agreement with much of what Julian says.
I’ve no idea what might happen in 2023, but I don’t think its going to be as bad as some expect, but neither will it be as rewarding as others predict. Its likely to be another year of trading on what the mood is, what the numbers mean, and hoping to call it right. Hope, as they say, is only a strategy when you simply don’t know!
Risk does not disappear. It hides in plain sight – as the investment industry will increasingly discover as crises mounts. Fortunately, there are SOB’s who have seen it before and are too aged to panic…
Global Markets have nosedived – the UK’s confidence crisis is one trigger alongside rising recession risks, crashing consumer spending and host of indications we ain’t near done on higher interest rates as inflation becomes embedded into economies and dollar strength continues unabated.
Harry Hindsight is the greatest trader who ever lived. He saw the July/August rally was just a bear trap. But, he’s not revealing his thoughts on how much further the market has to correct. Some analysts see mean reversion all the way back to 2008 levels!
BP will use some of its windfall Ukraine Oil Spike profits to fund a stock buy-back. Stock buy-backs are appropriate is some limited circumstances, but generally they distort the way capitalism is supposed to work, undermining good companies and sound corporate governance.
Despite US inflation hitting a 40 year high, US growth stocks rallied – reflecting the belief inflation and recession will be short and sharp. It’s a fair bet – but go back into growth stocks eyes-wide-open, and don’t be fooled by the most dangerous myth surrounding Tech – Personalities!
The number of threats facing markets; from inflation, central bank hikes, war, geopolitics, recession risks, corporate earnings and bond liquidity are legion. The big risk is they combine into a chaotic tipping point, at which moment we will just have to pick up the pieces…. Again.
The West will win the economic war against Russia, but it will take time and impose recessionary costs, while triggering pain across markets (including the housing bubble). But when it’s done… it will time to put your buying boots on!
Let me present a list of things to worry about next year. Inflation, US and China growth, Stagflation, Central Banks, Stocks, Climate and Equality, etc, etc.. But the big risks will be the consequences of US Politics and a Liquidity Meltdown in the Credit Markets.
