Markets are treading water trying to figure out directions – some of the underlying narratives look alluring, but they are not all they seem. In confused, uncertain markets, the trick is to remain suspicious of what others are following.
The Rugby World Cup is a reminder of all that is good, exciting and honest about 30 folk beating the crap out of each other. Enjoy the frenetic mayhem! Meanwhile, what is John Authers trying to tell us. And where are we this 9/11?
I’m polishing up my buying boots in anticipation of a fantastic buying window in the near future. All I need is the current everything bubble to burst under the deadweight of FOMO and unsustainable valuations! And things really ain’t looking so bad!
Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.
The market has chosen to read the Fed 25pb hike as a positive sign we’re on the glide path to a soft landing – but what does the market know? The charts and common sense increasingly scream recession. Take your pick: deflationary bust or stagflationary crisis?
Stocks are looking forward to a double dose of joy from strong tech earnings and the Fed close to end of the tightening phase, but these may be Potemkin Markets.. foundations in the sand and little behind the façade… says the grumpy bond trader…
US Inflation looks to have been beaten, but that might not mean very much if the global economy is still headed into recession. Rates and consumption are a lagging problem for the markets, and there is a chance even strong economies will stall.
Lots going on out there – but what does it all mean? Markets have plenty to consider from rates, inflation, micro, macro, geopolitics and climate – but the core objective remains: generating dull, boring predictable returns in difficult markets.
Stock buybacks are a contentious issue – there are times they are the right thing to do, and make sense. Often they do not. The trick is to align them with shareholder value and stakeholders and be aware of the consequences. They should not just be about the stock price!
The widening gulf in the outlook for the US and UK economies is stark. UK housing and the mortgage markets are a rising threat – but maybe we are looking at the all the wrong things as the Climate Crisis (oh, yes, remember that) comes back into focus.
