Tensions between Moscow and Europe are rising. There are rumours of war. While Western nations seek to rearm and adopt the lessons learnt by Ukraine, a bubble has developed in Mil-Tec arounds autonomy and drones. Defence investment is not a speculative opportunity – but a key issue for the sustainability and longevity of nations. It’s a complex investment landscape that requires specialist expert knowledge.

The factor that’s enabled the extraordinary success and longevity of the AI bubble has been the willingness of the markets to finance it. What happens if the liquidity machine driving AI were to suddenly stop? As the limits of bond markets, private credit, and using insurance companies to park risk, become increasingly apparent – what would a liquidity event do to current markets? Ouch!

The AI infrastructure build out already dominates credit market funding. Now Nvidia will effectively securitise its chips to its market though a panel of private capital markets firms that lend it credibility. The worry is complex and appealing deal structures will simply hide the risks inherent in AI – and increase the likelihood of a correlated crash when something inevitably breaks.

The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will happen when the US economy is also past its top, and following the UK into maturity?

The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today.

I have no interest in golf – it’s a good walk spoilt. But the rumoured collapse of the rogue LIV Golf Tour, and the disinterest fans are showing in attending Trump’s price-gouging Football World Cup, may be hints the sports investment bubble is about to burst. If it does, it could trigger a confidence wobble across private capital. It could also spell opportunity!

Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!

This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth driving valuations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, what’s it really worth?

Global Markets surge ahead. Bitcoin has been left behind. Yet again the crypto bubble has popped. All that’s holding it up is buy-the-dip greater fools, hope and belief – none of which are strategies for success. Time for a reassessment of what Bitcoin is and isn’t, and why it’s time to stop wasting energy on it!

Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believe the scale of losses might be hidden. Will Private Markets trigger the next crisis? I doubt it.