Financial Commentary for Smart People

The No-See-Um Market Crisis emerges in France!

The French Bond market threatens to become a crisis as yields widen and its’ politics look increasingly a zero-sum game. While we’ve been watching the antics in DC and the price of oil due to Iran, we’ve missed how swiftly a new European debt crisis has been brewing. If it deepens, it won’t be a simple repeat of 2010-12, which nearly crushed banks and triggered defaults. Europe’s second largest economy in crisis, and dispute with Frankfurt, could trigger even more massive instabilities.

The No-See-Um Market Crisis emerges in France!2026-10-02T07:49:30+01:00

The Need for Speed in the New Defence Sector

Defence has become the hot new sector, but investors need to understand the geopolitical reality, military requirements, the need for adaptation, and how the battlespace is changing. Defence needs to connect capital to warfighting capabilities that can be deployed now, adapted swiftly, and manufactured in unprecedented volume. The most effective way for the West to win is to demonstrate the will and ability to do so – which is the most likely way to deter our enemies from attacking.

The Need for Speed in the New Defence Sector2026-10-01T11:36:02+01:00

Porridge Extra – Guest Post: The Triple Lock, A Promise Priced for Calm Weather

Robert Hillman is a highly experienced City Quant, with a legendary record. He’s also a great mate of Bill! He’s come up with a great analysis of the UK’s Triple Lock Pension policy – looking at it as an option... It's well worth reading if you want to figure out smart policy vs political games. Yesterday UK premier Andy Burnham made clear the 15-year-old promise to keep rising the UK basic pension is going to change. The government will reinvest the cash it saves in a new national care service.

Porridge Extra – Guest Post: The Triple Lock, A Promise Priced for Calm Weather2026-09-30T14:40:30+01:00

Burnham’s Britain? Well, it’s likely to better than the Farage alternative…

What should markets be thinking about Andy Burnham’s conference speech yesterday? Gilts look to be giving him the benefit of doubt. Good in parts? He spoke well, proposed some positive policies and ideas, and gave an impression of a confident, positive politician set to deliver. The real issue isn’t just can Labour hold the nation steady and reverse years of negativity and low growth, but can any of the other parties do any better given the constrained state of the national finances?

Burnham’s Britain? Well, it’s likely to better than the Farage alternative…2026-09-30T08:30:27+01:00

What kind of Crisis is Approaching?

Markets are worrying about a short-term interest-rate/inflation triggered correction, but something deeper may be approaching – a convergence between market, economic and political failures. It may be time to hedge against consensus expectations of “it will all be fine” and focus on factors like national resilience in terms of what nations thrive and which won’t!

What kind of Crisis is Approaching?2026-09-29T10:10:22+01:00

Donald Trump, the President who made China Global Hegemon.

The current summit between Trump and Xi will likely become little more than a footnote in the history of the end of one economic empire and the emergence of the next. Xi has patience and has visited DC to let Trump do his thing, while he seeks time and stability to firmly establish China’s dominance. He is guided by the Sun Tzu dictum “Never interrupt your enemy while they are making mistakes.”

Donald Trump, the President who made China Global Hegemon.2026-09-25T08:27:33+01:00

The Bond Markets are set to Roil Markets with a Reset

In Bond Markets there is truth – and they are flashing warning signals a systemic market reset is on the cards. As rates rise, the relative prices of all financial assets will be impacted as the price of money normalises. It’s a period of transition with a high chance of an unstable reset, which is magnified by QE setting a false expectation of long-term low rates, and the growing realisation financial systems will suffer from political incompetence.

The Bond Markets are set to Roil Markets with a Reset2026-09-24T08:28:48+01:00

What can sailing tell us about the real economy?

Sailing is an easy way to distract me. Although water activities are thriving, the traditional sailing world is undergoing enormous change as a result of economic pressure and shifting societal trends. It’s only a tiny part of the overall economic picture but sailing hints at how the world may look in the future as affordability, economic confidence, and income inequalities start to divide society further into haves and have-not camps.

What can sailing tell us about the real economy?2026-09-23T08:57:39+01:00

The Wargame – a chilling reminder of the primacy of Defence

The UK is gradually waking up to the reality of very changed world. Its 40 years since we thought we’d won the Cold War. Now it’s apparent a new cycle of aggression has started, and just how woefully the West, and particularly the UK, is prepared. The Wargame, a new programme on SKY, explores just how swiftly the UK could be brought low in a conflict situation. It reinforces the message about the primacy of defence for governments and investment. If you want returns – they have to be protected.

The Wargame – a chilling reminder of the primacy of Defence2026-09-22T09:09:20+01:00

US Midterms? Maybe not as bad as we fear?

At the back of all traders and investors minds is the question: “just how bad might the US Midterms be?" Relax. Things are never as bad as we fear, (though seldom as good as we hope). The mid-terms will be consequential, and no matter what the result are unlikely to do much to reverse the long-term decline of the US Treasury Market – the single most important market on the planet.

US Midterms? Maybe not as bad as we fear?2026-09-21T08:32:50+01:00

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The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.

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