Sailing is an easy way to distract me. Although water activities are thriving, the traditional sailing world is undergoing enormous change as a result of economic pressure and shifting societal trends. It’s only a tiny part of the overall economic picture but sailing hints at how the world may look in the future as affordability, economic confidence, and income inequalities start to divide society further into haves and have-not camps.

If there is a 10% chance AI is going to kill us all, then that’s probably bad news for bond markets. There are a lots of things that threaten us, but fortunately most of them are quite unlikely. A 1 in 10 chance we’re all toast is not. Global markets will probably choose to look the other way, but how would your own investment decisions change if you knew the Terminator is about to knock on the door?

Celebrate Dolly. A reminder of real American exceptionalism and authenticity. What will replace her in the new America where Mega Tech and AI can settle the wrongs they do with no-liabilities settlements? Where the Vice President is a manufactured product of Billionaire’s Libertarian philosophy? Where the President runs the country as a fief to be milked dry? But can Authenticity can be bought and sold by the yard? At some point the people are going to question what’s really happening.   

As we fearfully watch the markets as the liabilities and exaggerations of AI threaten to unravel, or ponder what games arch-manipulator Scotty Bessant is playing with the Yen… there are times to sit back and wonder what life is really all about? The answer is in doing what makes you happy. In my case its sailing… Instead of trying to explain markets, let me run through how the yacht I was sailing just won Vintage Class at the 200th Cowes Week Sailing Regatta.

How Iran Won Trump's War

PJ O’Rourke (deceased)

The difference between successful democratic economies and autocracy is that the rule of law works better. Autocracies trend towards corruption and inefficiency. Insider dealing and corruption is a fact of the financial markets – punishing it is a matter of the enforcement of justice and the willingness to do so. Europe is acting over Epstein. What’s happening in the USA? 

This is not an obituary – but a story about markets. Hans-Jeorg Rudloff, who passed away earlier this week, was the dominant figure of the Eurobond market. His insights and vision were extraordinary – understanding how markets worked, how to dominate them, and setting the foundations for today’s $120 trillion global market!

After a busy few days in London, I need some light comic relief this morning, so let’s figure out why Britain is really broken. It’s nothing to do with Government. It’s all about crap customer service and the treacle that makes Big Companies so poor. They no longer care. And that spreads like a cancer around the economy. Trying to deal with large firms and the private utilities that run the UK is like daily root-canal surgery.

Forget the markets, forget the Fed, forget the Anti-dollar alliance – the issue of the day is what car brand best represents the aspirations of a bloke that knows nothing about cars? Should I buy something cheap, cheerful and reliable? In other words… Not a Land Rover?

Society is a complex notion. It is a collection of rules and guidelines for living and when these are pressured, instability is often the result. Markets are part of modern society and are vulnerable – especially at times of massive change, as is happening now. That doesn’t mean disaster – it means evolution to what will follows. Inshallah.