The Brexit Debate is never going to end. But the UK and Europe need to look to the future. The World in 2026 is very different to what short-term populist politicians thought they were selling us in 2016. A new relationship around trade, cooperation, and security, is possible and positive. Moreover, there is an easy win that could accelerate European growth – strengthening and unifying European Capital Markets!

The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board.

The French Bond market threatens to become a crisis as yields widen and its’ politics look increasingly a zero-sum game. While we’ve been watching the antics in DC and the price of oil due to Iran, we’ve missed how swiftly a new European debt crisis has been brewing. If it deepens, it won’t be a simple repeat of 2010-12, which nearly crushed banks and triggered defaults. Europe’s second largest economy in crisis, and dispute with Frankfurt, could trigger even more massive instabilities.

Everyone knows Europe is finished. Over-regulation, bureaucracy, a demographic bust, dusty old industries and the prospect of slow lingering decline.. Nonsense. The Sun may shortly rise on new prospects and growth as geopolitics and new trade develops. Might be time for the great rotation back across The Pond.

Markets are struggling with just how much Trump’s tariffs might derail global trade and growth. In normal times the solution would be patient negotiation to avoid destructive trade wars. These are not normal times – we are dealing with America First MAGA zealots.

Europe is getting “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word. The market to watch will be European Bonds – French OATs may just be the first to wobble. As the crisis unfolds (and it will) there may be opportunities to arbitrage the actions of the ECB to stem any crisis – watch this space.