The tide of American Politics has turned dramatically extreme in recent days. The narrative is no longer about why Trump is haemorrhaging electoral support but has shifted to whether the Democrats can unite to win the Midterms in November and present a credible challenge to Trump’s MAGA successor in the 2028 presidential election. The coming gladiatorial contest between Right and Left populists will be watched closely by concerned global investors.

Fifty years of political dither leaves the UK looking broken. Faced with massive constrains from taxation and bond markets, there are limited choices from tinkering with spending while trying to look good enough ahead of the next election. Britain needs something more radical – and a complete reform of the system and process.

The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets.

The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about.

“As advocacy journalism, The Battle for Hamble succeeds handsomely: vivid, indignant, and genuinely illuminating about the perverse incentives and quiet statistical failures inside Britain’s planning machinery.”

Regime Change occurred in the UK with relatively a few headless corpses left on the field of political failure… Burham is juggling with talent, spending and tax constraints, to maintain confidence. To succeed he needs to get radical. Social Housing is one avenue to growth he could pull off, and it could be funded off-balance sheet. The UK ain’t finished yet!

In the past 15 years the US economy has left Europe in the rear-view mirror. While America booms, Europe appears to be flatlining. The question is why? Americans say it’s entirely Europe’s fault: bad policies, failing politics, and lack of unity. However, the consequences of the (as yet unresolved) European Sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the speedbump.

C’mon. England won, but Norway was sparkling. It’s a genuine shame they are out the World Cup, but didn’t they do well? There is much that Norway’s successful blend of capitalist social democracy could teach the rest of the West. Most countries squander their abilities and resources – not Norway.

The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of Trump. The Crypto and graft entanglements that envelop him have shattered what made him so successful. Farage is no longer one of us. He is Them.

NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list.