Blain’s Morning Porridge Sept 17^th, 2026: Markets, Politics and Paying for the Narrative

“The 1% of Americans funding politics get to chose how the rest will live.”

Kevin Warsh established a degree of credibility for the Fed and himself yesterday by hiking rates. The Fed is focused on fighting inflation – the best long-term option, but a short-term painful outcome for American voters. The coming electoral cycles in the USA, Europe and the UK will all highlight the power of money that’s driving the narrative. Big money from Crypto and Tech is driving political decisions. The electorate will suffer the consequences of policies set to elicit donations rather than foster long-term growth and economic security.

LINK TO PODCAST

Key Takeaways:

• No need to worry about Kevin Warsh or the Fed – the unanimous 25bp hike confirms independence and price stability is the goal.
• Cutting inflation is an economic imperative, but politically painful – thus Trump’s efforts to pin the blame for higher rates on a politically motived board of Democrat appointees.
• To avoid irreparable damage at the Mid-Terms Trump is trying to sell critical swing voters hope in the form of electoral bribes, jam tomorrow, while blaming the “other-side”. His calls are economically incoherent but designed to win votes by showing the other side is worse.
• To get his narrative across means financing massive spend on advertising, new media, socials, influencers and podcasts.
• Increasingly fake news and disinformation is roiling the narrative – raising fears foreign interests may be a play, favouring Trump because of the damage he is doing to perceptions of the USA abroad.
• America’s billionaires are bought into it – massively favouring Trump with the political donations to fund the media narrative. They are making payments to retain influence in Trump’s court, and to reap regulatory favours for Tech and Crypto.
• Reform in the UK shows clearly how it works: Crypto interests have made Reform the wealthiest political party in UK history – in return Reform policy will directly benefit Crypto interests, including lower taxes.

Kevin Warsh established his bona fides as an Inflation Hawk yesterday. He ain’t the Sock Puppet Elizabeth Warren said he would be. He led a unanimous Fed decision to hike rates – and another rise in rates this year is nailed on. His subsequent comments made clear addressing inflationary pressures is his primary concern – not pleasing Trump. He has gone much of the way to establish his market credibility as a safe pair of hands. The Fed remains independent. That’s a good thing for ‘Merica. Well done, Kev.

The market reacted predictably. It fell a bit. The market is generally about short-term returns. It is not particularly concerned with the long run. Which is why smart investors will be pleased – knowing long-term growth will always outperform short-term trading.

Trump, of course, could not resist the opportunity to make a comment…

He said he’d told Warsh to vote with rest of the board, deriding them as “very political, doing the wrong thing.” That’s standard Trump. Although Trump says Warsh is independent, the message was Warsh can’t do the right-thing – the Trump-thing, because he’s hamstrung – like so many other US institutions including the fools who overruled him at the Kennedy Centre (US readers – dripping sarcasm alert), by the same swamp of Wokist entitlement that is resisting the Trump enlightenment. He wants his supporters to know the Fed ain’t doing its job because its “packed” with Democrat numskulls… mainly because the Supreme Court would not let him pack it with MAGA idiots. (Interesting Trump’s other chosen men on the Fed Board also chose to vote for the hike.)

The president went on to explain that rates should be 1% because the USA is the “best credit in the world”. No. It is not. Apparently, Trump will make it even stronger by stopping all trade with nations it runs a deficit with. Really? Explain. Nope.

There are rules to this world. One of them is that anyone who brags about being the best most certainly is not. The best credit in the world is the one most likely to make prompt repayment of principal and interest without any fuss. Credit is a function of ability and intent to pay, and competency. When Trump says America is the best – the first thought flashing through my mind was when will he (or his successors) declare a moratorium on Treasury payments to nations he deems hostile – like Canada because its talking to Europe instead of fawning to him? There are good reasons the USA is not AAA rated.

Trump espouses economic illiteracy on the grand scale… but he does it deliberately. The USA is split into three groups: core supporters, the persuadable middle, and core opponents. Trump is very aware there are, perhaps, about 33% of American voters who believe every single word of his ramblings, so enamoured of their leader they refuse to make the links between rising inflation, falling real wages, higher pump prices, increasing insecurity, while remaining blithely unaware of the USA’s rapidly deteriorating global power project in both military and economic terms. Trump don’t care about them – they are already in his pocket.

The ones that actually matter are the middle 33% of Americans, the swing voters who are small c conservative, who are aware and greatly concerned about where America is headed. The plan is to show them the Communist, Socialist, Left-wing-lunatic, Democrats are even worse. Reinforce that with the message the Woke Establishment is against them and intends to replace them. And offer outrageous bribes – like $5000 if he wins the election, or 1% interest rates on mortgages and car loans. In a nation where most voters have less than a month’s salary available to meet a crisis… easy money offers are hard to resist.

Put it all together and it doesn’t actually matter how completely and utter hatstand and economically damaging Trump, his policy flip-flopping, and his embarrassing cabinet minions will be to the future of the USA, it’s about winning votes NOWin this electoral cycle. The trick to successful populism is extending the lie.

How do you do that? With money… Money to spend on ads across the TV and social media, and telling the narrative as you want it heard…

Yesterday, on my Twitter Feed, I got a news story from a reputable US source. It was all about a massive turnaround in US polls in favour of Trump. The site seemed kosher, but when I looked more carefully and tried to call up other pages, it became clear it was a fake news site. I later got posted a similar tale on the BBC – again a fake site.

I then read stories about Emperor Xi of China taking ill at the India BRICS conference – apparently, he’s been flown home after a stroke! Open one story on it, and the algorithms will bury you in more stories to support and build your confidence in the narrative. In reality, none of the Xi stroke stories appear on reputable sites where stories are fact-checked. It’s highly unlikely any of it is true – Xi was there for both days of the conference, but he did skip a dinner. Creating a narrative of a distracted China, and how Xi may cancel the state visit to Washington because of his infirmity is likely designed to make Trump look virile and strong. Blurg!

I am increasingly unsure about the veracity of much of what I now read as news. But to form opinions the key is to become the target’s trusted news source. It amazes me how many of my chums tell me GB News (the propaganda arm of Reform) is their trusted news source over the BBC. The Beeb may be mildly Woke – as in they promote Woman’s football, promote talented journalists with non-Anglo-Saxon surnames, and respect politicians of all hues – but it’s generally well-meaning and honest, and it does factchecking and verification.

GB News is billionaires telling you what they need you to hear… I can guarantee I will get a dozen or so emails from angry gammons this morning telling me how untrustworthy the BBC is.

It’s all about money to drive the narrative.

Which begs the question: what do America’s Billionaires know that the rest of us do not?

The polls show the Democrats are likely to leave the Trump administration lame-ducked in November, yet 16 of the richest 20 US billionaires donating to political causes have contributed to Trump. Musk is in for $10 million. The rest have contributed over $429 million. Yesterday, the FT published an investigation: US Billionaires line up to bankroll Republicans. Well worth a read. (To be fair, George Soros has donated $102 million to the Dems.)

What’s the Billionaire game? In today’s transactional ‘Merica, they will clearly expect a return on their investments. Or is it just pay-to-play, making insurance contributions to make sure they remain connected at the court of King Trump and likely successors? I suspect protecting their financial interests also make sense. Trump has made clear he’s in favour of unleased AI and light-touch legislation to ensure American tech companies thrive on the global stage. Although a late convert (after someone explained how much money he could make), he’s all-in on the USA as the crypto-centre of the World. The easiest way to get a Presidential Pardon these days is to put Crypto on the application alongside the blank-cheque written to Trump.

Yet, this week the long-debated “Clarity Bill” – effectively a Crypto charter to legitimise the kind of crypto-scammery that Trump has proved so adept at in terms of his Meme-Coins and a stable-coin that’s sole USP is its link to Trump – failed to finish its legislative journey. Trump promises much, but delivery is another matter.

Here in the UK… our very own Mini-Me Trump, the once jovial but now haunted Nigel Farage, is all in on Crypto. He’s just made Reform the wealthiest party in British political history by accepting £72 million for his Reform Party from two British (very British… after spells in US the judicial system (solved as above) or hiding out in Thailand) patriots. My right-wing chums tell me there is absolutely nothing wrong with accepting donations from patriotic Brits. Fair enough…

However, I would point out that although Reform has made lots of noise about how it is going to fix Britain, magic up a £100 bln spending pot, it doesn’t have detailed policy plans on any aspect the economy, yet. Oh. Except in Crypto where Reform has published suspiciously detailed plans which include cutting tax on Crypto to 10%, a Bitcoin reserve, abandoning Treasury’s investigations on Digital Sterling and adopting private stablecoins and crypto-coins instead, and to establish Bitcoin alongside Sterling in all systems including His Majesty’s Revenue Collectors – the tax office.

In effect Reform’s sugar daddies, Crypto-felon Ben Delo and not-at-all dodgy Thai hide-away Crypto kingpin Christopher Harborne (who also gave Farage his £5mm pocket money just ahead of him becoming an MP) have acquired Reform, which is now a “Crypto-lobbying firm with its very own political party.” Yep, that is what Brits with a penchant for black shirts, black trousers, and black balaclavas are really demonstrating for – the right of Crypto shills to get even richer.

Where does it all end? Lies have a habit of being found out. The truth will out… or will it?

Out of time and back to the day job…

Bill Blain

Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital

Meanwhile, don’t forget about my new book: The Battle for Hamble

You can read a review on the Society of Professional Economist’s website here.