Stocks are looking forward to a double dose of joy from strong tech earnings and the Fed close to end of the tightening phase, but these may be Potemkin Markets.. foundations in the sand and little behind the façade… says the grumpy bond trader…
Dangerous times ahead as politicians weigh up the pros of sacrificing long-term climate and environmental goals for short-term electoral gains.
For years I’ve found reasons to avoid certain big tech stocks – but the market has largely been right. I might be clever, but the market is smarter. What’s the future likely to look like?
US Inflation looks to have been beaten, but that might not mean very much if the global economy is still headed into recession. Rates and consumption are a lagging problem for the markets, and there is a chance even strong economies will stall.
The UK is focused on all the wrong things – as the economy stumbles towards disaster, we’re fixated on sleaze. The Chancellor thinks he can fix it by directing the financial sector, confirming how little he knows about the City.
Lots going on out there – but what does it all mean? Markets have plenty to consider from rates, inflation, micro, macro, geopolitics and climate – but the core objective remains: generating dull, boring predictable returns in difficult markets.
Stock buybacks are a contentious issue – there are times they are the right thing to do, and make sense. Often they do not. The trick is to align them with shareholder value and stakeholders and be aware of the consequences. They should not just be about the stock price!
Strip away all the political nonsense, the decaying infrastructure, even Brexit, and the real issue to solve at the core of the UK’s multiple problems is the National Health Service. Solve that, reboot it and relaunch it, and everything else may fit back into place. Its worth a try.
Many think Markets are set fair for the second half of 2023 – but what if a mighty depression is brewing out there in the ocean of corporate debt? I am looking at the glass (barometer for the non-nautical) falling and at the CLO market in particular. There may be a storm brewing.
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
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