The market is distracted by the up, down, shake it all about noise in Tech. Watch banks! The US Fed passed all 31 major US Banks in its annual bank stress test. I can’t think of anything that could scare me more…

The markets have been casting a wary eye on rising CRE losses – figuring these may trigger a renewed bout of banking weakness, but the reality is the market has to cope with normalised interest rates and changed demand patterns. Its pain but also opportunity.

Two things worry me: the consequences of a Commercial Property bust, and the potential of a US$ Bond Crash. Equities merely reflect dimly their relative value to real assets and rates – and will suffer accordingly. Not to worry though.. the IMF says no recession!

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

Fears of a full-on Commercial Real Estate Crisis are mounting as rising rates, a dearth of credit and a record redemption schedule combine into a perfect storm – but the market is already expecting it, so what will be the credit event or no-see-um that tiggers a market meltdown?