The Thames Water debacle is shaping up to be a critical “Judder” moment for the UK. Public utility privatisations decades ago have left a legacy of underinvestment and broken services. The bills will be enormous – and crippling - creating a potential investment crisis.
China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation? China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation?
The Canary Wharf saga has been “interesting”, but as demand for office space evolves, is it over? The events in Russia are a reminder to markets about instability, uncertainty and just how dysfunctional it could all become.
Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.
As we wait for The Bank of England to address the latest inflation miss – consider Pencil Complexity Theory, Cucumber Inflation Modelling and why Wimbledon will be Hell this year.
Orders are piling up at the Paris Airshow, but fractured supply chains, labour shortages and engine problems means new aircraft deliveries are delayed for years. That’s opportunity, but also hints at new dynamics in terms of how the aviation sector develops – the Age of Cheap Flight may be over.
The widening gulf in the outlook for the US and UK economies is stark. UK housing and the mortgage markets are a rising threat – but maybe we are looking at the all the wrong things as the Climate Crisis (oh, yes, remember that) comes back into focus.
The UK housing market is at its’ highest income multiple since the 1850s, at a time when real incomes have flatlined for 2 decades, and mortgage borrowers are levered higher than ever – its set for a wobble, sustained only by supply shortages. If it crashes.. all bets on the UK will need re-examined.
A 4 week old French AI has achieved a first funding round value of $240mm and that’s as cheap as chips (literally). Meanwhile, AT1/CoCo zombie bonds return from the grave of bad financial ideas, confirming Blain’s mantra: The Market Has No Memory!
US Stocks are back in bull territory, but how dangerous are Euphoric Markets determined to follow an upside narrative – no matter what the underlying reality? Markets are not clever, just voting machines reflecting how smart participants are.
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