Stock markets are on a buzz. Central banks are expected to ease immediately. Joy unlimited. What war? Peace in the Middle East! Really? There are none so blind as salesmen wanting to talk a market higher.

The War in Iran is a kinetic feature of the economic/hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. President Trump will lose because his Iran war is unwinnable. Iran won’t lose because it does doesn’t have to win. That’s a recipe for a forever war, and a definition of asymmetric warfare. The likely winner of a wider Economic War will be China. Energy and Supply Chains will determine the future.

Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

30,000 Boeing Workers are on strike, further slowing airline deliveries, backing up supply chains and creating higher costs for passengers. With a potential downgrade to junk, and an emergency capital raise in view – is the Boeing End Game approaching?

Over the next 25 years the global shipping fleet will make a massive transition from dirty bunker fuels to new clean energies to achieve Net-Zero. The technologies are evolving, but are now coming on line. Methanol fuelled ships are now in operation – and they are investible!

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation? China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation?

Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!

Stocks tumbled 20% in H1, but Central Banks are fixated on Inflation as the No 1 priority with higher interest rates nailed on. Supply chain issues remain difficult, meaning corporate earnings will remain under pressure. The market is setting up for further weakness through H2.

The number of threats facing markets; from inflation, central bank hikes, war, geopolitics, recession risks, corporate earnings and bond liquidity are legion. The big risk is they combine into a chaotic tipping point, at which moment we will just have to pick up the pieces…. Again.