The Fed has fallen. What will negative real yields do the US economy? It will likely further fuel asset speculation and lead to renewed QE as global buyers exit the US bond market. Using inflation to wipe the budget deficit may even be part of the plan. The path ahead looks increasingly fraught. Been here before.

Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

Trump has been sending “for your immediate attention”, letters to former friends and allies hiking tariffs and threatening retribution if they retaliate. Yawn. Who cares? The Global economy gets it. America is no longer America. Global trade is shifting. Excellent – that spells opportunity!

Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth gives a masterclass in how we should think about inflation.

It’s time to focus back on the real stuff: economic growth and innovation. We need to move past the Trump noise, and get back to opportunities. Which companies offer realistic growth and innovation, and which are hype? The real issue may yet prove to be the US Treasury Market, where doubts are growing.

This week will be about Jay Powell – how will Trump deal with the resolute Fed chairman? Experience suggests badly. As the effects of tariffs on the US economy begin to bite, and the weakness of Trump’s negotiating positions become increasing clear.. fewer and fewer folk will be talking about buying-the-dip.

Yesterday’s UK’s 15-year Gilt deal was a 15 times oversubscribed blowout success, demonstrating global investors have confidence in the UK’s competence, stability and markets. However, Ray Dalio is writing another book about why countries go bust, and reckons the UK is caught in a debt-death spiral. I doubt it.

The UK chattering classes are delighted. They’ve finally got something they can all agree on – it’s all Labour’s fault. However, that leaves one itsy-bitzy problem? We all agree this lost are useless. The last lot was even more useless. How and who is actually going to fix the UK? I prescribe a course of pragmatic reality and primal screaming….

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being blamed for the Gilt Bear market. Harsh and unfair – it’s a global thing. Investors fear sticky inflation as much as rising debt quantums, tax cuts and spending plans. A global bond bear market brings consequences – be aware of them.

Politics was an overarching theme in 2024 – and, regrettably, will remain so in 2025 as global investors figure out likely policy action by central banks and the growth outlook for 2025. “This time it’s different” (TTID) and FOMO remain the most malign forces acting on asset prices, but is a new full blown European Sov Debt Crisis also on the cards?