The markets are on a tear convinced normalisation is around the next corner. Yet they ignore the reality the Iran war has done significant damage to the global outlook – even if Tehran and Washington kiss and make up tomorrow. I don’t claim to understand the madness of markets and their ability to keep fooling themselves, but I do follow economic history and how events change outcomes.

Y’day we had yet another Judder Moment for markets as the Fed surrendered to Trump and prepares to juice the markets with renewed QE. Have we learnt nothing? No, I guess we have not. Pretend and keep pretending as we enter the Potemkin Economy era. This will not end well.

This will be the last FOMC as we knew them. From here on, a politicised Fed will be dancing to the President’s tune. That may be a good thing – but probably not. It may prove great news for markets, but a route to economic stagnation. It may also trigger a correction.

What an interesting time we live in. Uncertainty, instability, markets hitting new highs as fears plumb new depths. Nothing to worry about. The global economy and markers are changing. Just how we won’t know till we can see it in the rear-view mirror.

Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth gives a masterclass in how we should think about inflation.

China issued $2bln of Bonds via Saudi Arabia last week. Some think it’s part of a malign plan for China to disrupt the global dollar bond markets. It may be the trigger for a dramatic rethink and recalibration of how global markets finance future credit. As geopolitical flux deepens, how might a new bond markets evolve?

Questions, questions, everywhere this morning! Bitcoin has staged a spectacular rally since the US election. I am assured - by crypto-shills - this makes it a proper financial asset. Oh, here was me thinking it was money. Nope. It’s an asset. Really? Also, a podcast on why Musk should buy Boeing. And what does the new US defence secretary likely mean for the US military and the future of NATO-CANZUS.

The global economy is reaching a nexus point as multiple cycles and challenges coincide – successful nations will recognise and exploit the new opportunities as they emerge. In the UK, it’s time for the new Labour government to stop trying to be marginally better tories than the Tories were, and embrace debt solutions!

This is the outline of a talk I've been giving in recent months on the dangers of ignoring the behavioural lessons from the QE Era as policy makers get ready for the inevitable next financial crisis. The great thing about financial crises is there will always be another one - no point panicking today when you'll get to panic again tomorrow! 

Very early start on the radio this morning, but Jamie Dimon and I are aligned; the global economy is at an inflection point as higher rates, stickflation, debt and climate costs hit the reset button. It doesn’t have to be a bear-reset and could present massive opportunities! Embrace change!