The UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicians were serious about repairing the political economy of the UK – it’s time for root and branch surgery on the “frictions” that leave the nation suffering Economic Dementia!

There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.

 There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying anything to anyone.

The World shifted over the weekend. Trump’s 100% China Tariff threat was a snap reaction to the reality is China is now the key power in global trade, and holds most of the cards. There are significant risks ahead, not the least being the AI bubble popping – which would kill US sentiment as the whole stock market edifice will trumble.

The Gaza deal is an extraordinary win for President Trump. Banging heads together worked – and may have created conditions for the Middle East to move towards reconciliation. But, we had another “judder” moment as the trade conflict he triggered with China threatens to overturn the USA’s economic resilience.

Argentina’s financial crises are legendary – a 10th default is now in prospect. President Milei’s efforts to turn the nation around through austerity, government cuts, and economic shock therapy made him a poster boy for the Libertarian Project 2025. Surprisingly, they appeared to be working, till suddenly they aren’t. Now the USA looks set to bail out the nation.

This will be the last FOMC as we knew them. From here on, a politicised Fed will be dancing to the President’s tune. That may be a good thing – but probably not. It may prove great news for markets, but a route to economic stagnation. It may also trigger a correction.

Huh! Some Nervous Nellies think the US stock market is rallying hard on thin air. Nonsense. What’s not to like about a big Fed Ease, a strong economy, and empowered companies! Nothing to worry about in terms of inflation or trade – ignore the doomsters trying to undermine confidence in the President and America. Buy, buy, and buy…

Gold has been an absolute portfolio star this year. It’s ridden the markets rising fears on sovereign debt, inflation and political incompetency. What will drive it back down? It seems unlikely fears will lessen, especially if predictions of rising instability and stagflation prove founded.

The amount of nonsense being written about the imminent collapse of the UK Gilts Market defies logic and experience. The numbers show demand for Gilts remains solid – but the growing, and often invented negativity over rising Lond-End yields threatens confidence in the UK’s bond market. Yield curves are steepening around the globe!