Up, down, shake it all about. Current markets are driven by short-term rumour and sigh about what Trump might do or say next on tariffs. However, the real threats are longer-term – how the global economy is increasingly vulnerable not just to trade and economics, but also the growing weakness and unravelling of US military might. The implications for global security could change everything.
This morning’s ugly opening to global markets highlights just how quickly the Trump Tantrum has gathered market momentum. There is rising pushback and uncertainty focused on the US economy, the consequences of global trade war, and recessionary/stagflationay risks. Markets are braced for worse to come – as ever there are risks, but also opportunities.
In times of financial stress, the market tends to take on a momentum all of its own. We may be in for further shocks, instabilities and dreadful No-See-Ums as investors try to discern what comes next following Trump’s tariffs. Interesting times to come…
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has the most difficult job in the world. How do you explain to a cabinet of financial imbeciles the USA is on course for a stock market crash, recession, inflation and a possible collapse in the US Treasury Market? It’s high risk - Trump is a “shoot-the-messenger” kind of guy.
Markets are struggling with just how much Trump’s tariffs might derail global trade and growth. In normal times the solution would be patient negotiation to avoid destructive trade wars. These are not normal times – we are dealing with America First MAGA zealots.
The yield on Sovereign Bonds is the “risk-free” rate from which relative risk in any economy is priced. There is a crisis across all developed nations in the quantum of debt they now face servicing in a global economy where risks are rising and there is a significant threat of stagflation. It’s time for nations to get aggressive about Liability Management of their outstanding debt.
We live in interesting times. Markets are see-sawing on the strum et drang of events. It’s critical to cut through the noise, and figure where this all might be going. Once events are in motion, they become increasingly difficult to control. Change is in the air.
What’s not to like as the sun rises on a beautiful spring morning? Well… As the UK watches its public infrastructure tumble into wrack and ruin as a result of privatisation and financialisation, the USA is excited Elon Musk is doing such a great job at DOGE saving their tax-dollars. They might want to avoid a look at the shaky edifice of Musk’s tech empire as its core, Tesla, increasingly looks a hollow sham.
Nothing beats teaching the next generation of financiers. I had that honour yesterday at Heriot-Watt’s Edinburgh Business School Yesterday where we discussed Markets, Politics and Economics. There were some great questions from my post-grad students – and one: “Is this a correction and should we buy the dip”, is good example of how much has really changed. The answer is – No.
Trump’s efforts to broker a Ukraine peace with Russia over the heads of Europe and Ukraine was never anything but posturing. Europe should step up and take control – it’s a risk strategy, but would be the making of Europe. Rearmament could give Europe the economic boost and purpose it requires, and discourage further conflict.
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