Blain’s Morning Porridge March 14^th 2025 – Who needs Amerika? Europe can defend Democracy

“Bullies only understand when its someone’s fist connecting at speed with their face.”

Trump’s efforts to broker a Ukraine peace with Russia over the heads of Europe and Ukraine was never anything but posturing. Europe should step up and take control – it’s a risk strategy, but would be the making of Europe. Rearmament could give Europe the economic boost and purpose it requires, and discourage further conflict.

All eyes are on the Kremlin as we wait to see how Trump responds to Putin’s mixed response to the ceasefire proposal. How is that likely to play out? Putin is acting like a man holding five aces. He will happily play for time while he “considers” the deal – setting impossible conditions, looking to question and haggle over the details, while pouring troops into recovering Kursk and seizing Ukrainian land ahead of signing anything. Zelensky will be throwing everything Ukraine has left into multiple breaches on the front lines.

The Ukraine ceasefire is hardly the work of diplomatic genius Trump promised us when said he’d have Ukraine at peace within a day. In 1939s, the people of Poland were trampled as two tyrants drew lines on a map. If feels like the People of Ukraine are being similarly commoditised by the Trump/Putin bromance. History is unlikely to judge him kindly; the terms and outcomes will likely leave the USA looking weak and manipulated – whatever great deal Trump thinks he’s done. His betrayal of Ukraine will likely rank as the nadir of the American era.

We already know it will be sub-optimal for Ukraine – and therefore Europe.

Putin has been told and already knows he’ll get much of what he wants from Trump, hence his maximalist terms. He will keep his finger on the trigger to wring the maximum possible out of any “peace”. Meanwhile, he’ll demand all supply and re-equipment to Ukraine is stopped during any ceasefire, giving the mighty Red Army time to regroup, resupply, and redeploy before some maskirovka false-flag event on the front lines is staged to justify its next attack.

And then the arguments will start all over again. Bit by bit, step by step, lie by lie. Russia will seize Ukraine. American patriots will be horrified, but it will happen. We will learn the lesson the hard way: don’t rely on America when it can throw up characters like Trump.

Ukraine deserves better. It will not get it from America. The American’s have shown their true colour. Defending Ukraine is a European problem.

Shock and horror! Europe being forced to defend its own? The question should not be whether Europe can afford it (although that is a critically important one), but how loudly Europe’s coalition of the willing will now deliver on supporting Ukraine. Its time Europe “steps up to the plate.”

Europe is in a much stronger position than the naysayers and doubters suppose. If that means boots on ground to patrol the ceasefire line – then threaten Putin with it. His plans to continue bouncing Europe into compromises will fail if he risks triggering a European trip-wire. Appeasement is out. Force projection is in.

The problem is Europe is dancing round Trump, too nervous to intervene lest his capricious nature lashes out at them. Europe needs to tell Trump strongly they need to be at the table – and calling the shots alongside the USA. Putin can’t face the embarrassment of being dictated peace terms by Europe alone.

On the face of it the rich continent of Europe with some 650 million well educated, healthy, wealthy citizens should easily be able to overcome 145 million poorer, lower-life-expectancy, Russians – but that’s probably what someone said when the early barbarian hordes first hove into view from over the steppes a thousand years ago.

All of which means we are at a very dangerous moment, unless Putin’s bluff is called and he is denied an easy American-sponsored win in Ukraine. .

As I wrote above, Putin is playing like a man with 5 aces. He has some decent cards:

• Russia’s economy is set up for war – Europe’s is not after too many decades spent under the American defence umbrella.
• Russia has the support of China – which needs Russian oil and commodities.

But otherwise, the performance of the Red Army in Ukraine has been… embarrassing. The Russian economy is a Potemkin village – frontage with no foundation. Inflation is rampant. If the Russians knew the true body count – they would be shocked. Putin is playing a duff hand.

In contrast Europe has a much stronger hand that we’re prepared to acknowledge. Europe’s defence industry is massive, strong and resilient. It is already ramping up. Airbus, BAE, ThyssenKrupp, Thales, Safran, Dassault, Rolls Royce, Leonardo, Rheinmetall and a host of other firms and establishments give Europe’s defence base absolutely solid foundations from which to expand.

These firms will enable European emergency spending to bring a new European Treaty Organisation up to defensive strength within a few years – able to repel any Russian aggression, and then only a few years more before Europe leaves the Russians lagging behind – replicating the 1980s Cold War arms race than bankrupted the USSR. Europe’s current weakness will be a very limited time window.

Might Putin realising how quickly Europe can build itself up, tempt him to escalate in the wake of the confusion that would result from Trump just walking away? It seems unlikely given how poorly the Red Army has performed. Poland would be an impossible task. But the Baltic States? To what possible gain?

If Europe wants to destroy Russia, then a nod to China about access Siberian resources would be all it would take. Putin’s five aces are largely jokers…

To secure lasting peace, Europe must show it is prepared to win a war. That is the lesson from the millennia of tribal warfare that characterises the continent. Can Europe rebuild its defence industry infrastructure, supply chains, the skill sets, and re-establish the critical military inputs it left to the Americans? Can Europe attract the human resources required to man and establish a new military? The answer to both is yes, but at cost. And that money and political will has to be committed now – which is exactly what European leaders are proposing.

The naysayers claim Europe will never agree over anything – it’s too far gone and a barely functioning Bureaucraholic! Yet, when crunch comes to crunch, and it can be presented as a unifying force – the rearmament of Europe creating opportunities for growth, employment, purpose and mission.. then it could potentially be the defining moment that makes Europe.

In a better world the end of the American Empire’s presence in Europe would have happened in a calm and ordered way. Over a decade or so Europe and the US would have coordinated a staged withdrawal US forces while replacing them with new European defence capabilities. The vast stores of pre-positioned weaponry and war-stocks would have been transferred to build up ETO forces. Instead, we’ve had the almost overnight switch from an America committed fully to Nato and Article 5, to an America-First USA walking out.

Today Europe lacks critical command and control, signals and communications, intelligence, logistics, air-to-air refueling, airlift and sealift capabilities – having always assumed the Americans were providing these. How quickly Europe can fill these gaps is critical. They will take time and effort – but Germany and the UK have always shown resilience under pressure. In terms of countering the threat of Russian nuclear power – France and the UK have the capability also.

The French, who went their own way and withdrew from core NATO in a Gaullist strop in 1966 (but would be fully involved if the cold war turned hot) do have many of the space based surveillance, intel and coms satellite systems Non-US Nato would require. They aren’t as advanced, as plentiful (and are probably more vulnerable) than those possessed by the Americans, but they could be basis for a European tripwire. How quickly French intel assets can be integrated at the tactical level across NATO forces will be debatable – but it could happen.

The more important issue is where will the money come from? By placing defence spending outside the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact, and correctly defining it (alongside COVID) as emergency spending it becomes fundable. The EU is calling for €800 bln – which is fundable. Germany will benefit enormously from rearmament and has the debt headroom to significantly build up its infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities. Already, other European nations are showing interest in the new Panther Tank – commonality would be a great thing.

It’s no wonder European defence stocks are on a raz. Far from Europe being weak, there is a growing realisation across the continent that together we are stronger, and that snoozing under the US umbrella held us back.

All that said about European Unity… I’m look still forward to Scotland hammering France at the Rugby on Saturday!

Have a great weekend, out of time, and back to the day job…

Bill Blain

Author the Morning Porridge

Founder Windshift Capital

Partner Shard Capital