Private Assets, Contagion Risk and Opportunity.
Blain’s Morning Porridge 24th April 2025 – Private Assets, Contagion [...]
Have US Markets become a Soap Opera?
The narrative in US markets grows more improbable every day. Did Trump not threaten to sack Powell last week? And aren’t massive tariffs on China a guarantee of US victory? Apparently, that was just a dream sequence, and Bobby Ewing is about to step out the shower. Confused? You will be. Welcome to Trump – The Soap.
Stage 2 of the Trump Chaotic Meltdown: The Blame Game
This week will be about Jay Powell – how will Trump deal with the resolute Fed chairman? Experience suggests badly. As the effects of tariffs on the US economy begin to bite, and the weakness of Trump’s negotiating positions become increasing clear.. fewer and fewer folk will be talking about buying-the-dip.
Markets are bounded by the society we wish to live in
Society is a complex notion. It is a collection of rules and guidelines for living and when these are pressured, instability is often the result. Markets are part of modern society and are vulnerable – especially at times of massive change, as is happening now. That doesn’t mean disaster – it means evolution to what will follows. Inshallah.
Should the UK sign a trade deal with the US or Europe?
The UK faces a tough choice: a trade deal with the US or re-engagement with Europe. In Trump world these are mutually exclusive outcomes. Trump wants to boast about the trade deals he’s signing. Its time the Sir Keir Starmer got a bit UK First in how we respond. Too many strings could be attached to a US deal.
Will US markets become investible again? After We Pass Peak Trump
Content with his supposed win in the Tariff Wars, now Trump is rooting out internal dissent – Harvard being top of his list of target institutions. What next? US Risks are rising and are still not fully reflected in stock or bond prices. Peak Trump is a long way down the road – till then things may get worse.
British Steel, a strategic imperative where nobody joined up the dots
The UK’s steel-making industry is a national embarrassment. Key national infrastructure was handed to foreign owners who let it languish. It makes a mockery of strategic resilience and illustrates how the UK’s broken planning system operates against the national interest and economic growth.
A Week is a Long Time in Politics and Markets
The irresistible force of Trump has hit the immovable rock of Economic and Market Reality. The inconsistencies of Trump’s tariff policies - the centre-plank of his economic understanding - have been exposed as bogus. It begs the question – What Next? Which is why markets are braced for even more dislocation.
Bond Market Punches Trump in the Mouth
Trump’s supporters think he just played a blinder of masterstroke reversing tariffs. Those of us with clearer minds and an understanding of finance know the truth – Trump lost. The bond market punched him hard between the eyes.
Trump Shuts the Door on China, Global Trade and Common Sense
Global Trade is enormously complex. Trump has put 104% tariffs on China – which will directly impact US consumers. Shutting the door on global trade will inevitably trigger consequences. The biggest risk is to the bond market – and a stressed Treasury market when the US has $15 trillion to refinance in next 20 months is a really, really bad idea.
