The market is probably overstressing on Trump – but he does make a lot of noise. A bigger danger may be the broader signals and the future of the USA as economic hegemon. At a time when the US Debt clock is spinning so fast you can’t read the numbers, could the USA withstand a Dollar, Treasury and Political Competency Crisis? Let me explain by taking you to the top of a very steep mountain.
Howls of pain as US markets sink through 200 day moving averages and into correction phase! It’s increasingly clear Trump Version 2.1 still contains significant bugs and 404 errors. Sadly, we can’t simply reboot the OS and hope it starts ups again. Markets will just have to adjust to the new Trump reality.. and it’s likely to hurt. A lot.
When future economic historians try to figure out the pivotal moment in the Decline and Fail of the American Century, its likely last week will figure in their thinking. Trump’s actions will have profound implications for bond and tech markets – and the time to start building these consequences into portfolios is NOW!
Crypto looks to be in Free Fall. If it previous crashes are any guide, it will fall between 70 and 80% before it stages yet another improbable recovery, or will it? There is so much noise, manipulation and outright shysterism around Crypto it makes little sense to risk playing the greater fool and buying falling knives. That doesn’t mean you can’t still trade the market’s gullibility!
How sustainable is the Trump effect? The world is reeling from his demands and threats to trade. Trump’s power is to shock. Yet, we become inured to shocks, and work our way around them. How long before Trump’s backers and supporters realise that? And he hasn’t even started on China!
The UK government intends to raise spending on defence by nearly 0.2% of GDP. Give me a break! The costs of trying to fight war on the cheap will be far higher than the costs of maintaining the Peace by being properly prepared to fight a war. To keep the peace means being prepared to fight – and fight hard. Such costs may bring substantial economic benefits.
Trump has been the dominant influence on markets thus far in 2025. That won’t last forever as inevitable Trump fatigue will set in, and the consequences of his actions become clear. That’s likely to expose a very different mood – and one that may trigger a correction to reflect the new realities.
The German elections highlight the dangers of coalition politics – swimming in a sea of treacle to agree policy choices as the likelihood of bad compromises rises. Even as Trump and Ukraine roil and destabilises the European Union, Germany is set for the distinct possibility nothing much changes. It is not strong and stable leadership at a time when it is desperately needed.
I’m delighted to announce we’ve signed an agreement in Cairo to build a new $7 bln private sector petrochemicals plant in Egypt, a development that could herald a new era of economic growth and the emergence of the future Middle Sea economy for the Middle East, Europe and North Africa.
Month 1 of Trump V2 has been…. “interesting”. The playbook is not to win friends, but to shock former allies into compliance with Trump’s America First agenda. The results may not be what Trump and his minions expect. There will be push back. New Alliances and Trade patterns will form - with or without America.
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