Volatility in Treasury markets is setting off Global alarms. Economic numbers and earnings present a mixed picture of what’s occurring in terms of rates and inflation projections, but the reality is markets are highly vulnerable to rising uncertainty!
Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.
Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.
“Curiously, the only thing that went through the mind of the bowl of petunias was; Oh no, not again..” Inflation is what inflation is.. Prices are still rising, Central Banks are watching, the US debt ceiling crisis will distract us all, and Donald Trump remains… “extraordinary”. All feels a bit unstable.
Fears of a full-on Commercial Real Estate Crisis are mounting as rising rates, a dearth of credit and a record redemption schedule combine into a perfect storm – but the market is already expecting it, so what will be the credit event or no-see-um that tiggers a market meltdown?
The US has been a great Anglo-Saxon creation and experiment, but the way in which 6 conservatives hold the reins of power, and are showing they are prepared to flex them is causing rising doubt.
The US just took another step towards the end of the Age of American Exceptionalism. It will have major consequences on markets and geopolitics. The West has limited time to prepare for some profound changes.
Last night’s US local elections threw out some interesting signals as to where gridlock, polarisation and the apparent decay of American Democracy are headed next. Its maybe not all as bad as we fear, but the outlook remains risky!
If there is common theme to some of the market’s speculative bubbles its their thin supporting veneers of fake credibility and plausible deniability. Trump’s Social Media empire, Bitcoin and Evergrande – all share a core of fundamental emptiness.