Markets are worrying about a short-term interest-rate/inflation triggered correction, but something deeper may be approaching – a convergence between market, economic and political failures. It may be time to hedge against consensus expectations of “it will all be fine” and focus on factors like national resilience in terms of what nations thrive and which won’t!

The current summit between Trump and Xi will likely become little more than a footnote in the history of the end of one economic empire and the emergence of the next. Xi has patience and has visited DC to let Trump do his thing, while he seeks time and stability to firmly establish China’s dominance. He is guided by the Sun Tzu dictum “Never interrupt your enemy while they are making mistakes.”

Keep your eyes on JD Vance. He is headed for a coronation. What will that mean for America and global markets? He’s not stupid, but many suspect hes is not his own man – he owes his successes to billionaire Mega-mind Peter Theil. Vance will lead the attack on the Progressive, Weirdo, Democratic Socialists, but even if he wins… what kind of market and economy might he inherit?

Trump is the most unrestrained US president – yet is supported by the richest and most successful men in America even as we watch him upend everything the USA once stood for. What if Trump is just the front-man for a Regime that is changing the World - breaking traditional relationships and alliances to create a stronger America as China threatens to supersede it? Europe is struggling with the new rules of America’s primacy, the end of the Nato Era, the emergence of a new American hemisphere, and how nations should relate to the new Imperial USA. How these will all play in the Great Game to be Global Hegemon is as yet unclear, but the world is changing fast.

This week is going to be… “interesting”. Confidence in the US financial markets and system is under pressure. The US owes more than $40 trillion. Bessent’s intervention in bond markets has backfired, the market is waiting to judge new Fed Head Kevin Warsh, and Trump has kicked off a new trade war with Canada. The USA’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity of the Dollar, the Treasury Market, and Political Competency looks well-wobbly. Meanwhile, the latest documentary on Boeing shows how the myth of US exceptionalism is under pressure.

The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about.

What Football fans would not want Donald Trump supporting their team? Who would say no to Trump’s superpower to reverse any referee decision? His intervention into the World Cup leaves the rest of the world shaking its collective head in disbelief. Another reason to laugh at America. These things have consequences. When is America going to wake up?

Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting the state of the US economy, and the mistakes in Iran, means Trump will become less relevant from November.

Trump is running out of options over Iran. Bluff and Bluster won’t fix it. When he visits Beijing this week, he will be up against Emperor Xi – who holds all the cards; sufficient oil reserves, dominance over global supply chains, and critically the ability to shut off the single most important commodity in the world today – Chips.

That was an interesting weekend. Trump announces a blockade that will impact the whole Global Economy – and South East Asia and China in particular. At least Europe got some good news from Hungary. More instability forecast before Trump inevitably TACO’s again. Markets are getting bored of it – which means the consequences could be even more volatile! That could double up No-See-Um Risks.