Trump took the Off-Ramp. Markets are soaring, off to the races as the threats of global slowdown, recession and stagflation recede. But, for all the military power and competency on display – it’s a strategic defeat for the USA. That has massive implications for US Assets – Treasuries, Stocks, Investment, Market Confidence and Politics.

Oh dear. Last night’s explanation of the War did not go well. What changed except a more unstable and fractured global economy and rising trade, supply chain and conflict risks? When markets are priced for perfection – what happens when reality intrudes. I see bad things arising.

Who needs nukes to win an Oil War when Water is the key? The Front-Line Gulf States are highly vulnerable to a Water War on their desalination plants. Yesterday Trump threatened to strike Iran’s water infrastructure – practically inviting Tehran to strike back! But the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran’s only Ace in the current war.

The future will be set not just by the defence and deterrence discussions last weekend in Munich, but by how global markets react to competition. New Chinese AI drops from DeepSeek and Qwen may challenge US hyperscalers and challenge expectations of global demand and markets.  

Gold surges through $5000 and markets remain distracted by the sturm et drang of words and events. The world is changing – but are we thinking about all the wrong things? The real issue for the future may be investment choices between authoritarian states vs nimble democratic nations.

Yesterday was a strategic disaster for America. Trump and his minions have destroyed the alliances that underpinned American exceptionalism. He revealed himself as weak and venal; an old man lost in rambling hatreds. America now faces a scrabble to save face and recover a modicum of respect. The medium-to-long term market implications are huge.

It’s one year since Trump took office for a second time. It’s been dramatic. It’s been eventful – and it’s been destructive and destabilising. The winners are Putin and Xi. The losers are the West. But have we now reached peak-Trump? Europe is the key – the continent has to wake up to the coming opportunities.

The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) revealed last week confirms just how much the world has changed. It was a kick in the teeth for Europe and leaves the door ajar on Taiwan. It’s unlikely to foster stability. It increases the pressure on Europe to swiftly rearm, and unify its defence and deterrence capabilities. For America – it raises fundamental questions about its declining power, strength, might and economic outlook.

This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happy retail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch China for clues.

This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly take centre stage.