Mario Draghi saved Europe in 2012. Yesterday he unveiled a new plan long on words and familiar ideas. Europe is aware it is approaching economic crisis – but prescribes the same old solution of Closer Union. It’s time for Europe to so something radical or become irrelevant.
Plus – UK win stage 1 of the America’s Cup.
The global economy is reaching a nexus point as multiple cycles and challenges coincide – successful nations will recognise and exploit the new opportunities as they emerge. In the UK, it’s time for the new Labour government to stop trying to be marginally better tories than the Tories were, and embrace debt solutions!
Nvidia’s extraordinary rise comes from being the picks and shovels supplier to the AI revolution. It’s not just MegaTechs coat-tailing Nvidia that will win, but productivity gains from AI could counter the growing debt/gowth crisis in the West. AI is more complex than just a single stock.
The UK is in “technical” recession. Broken Britain is the depressing reality. The bleak outlook will have profound and long-term consequence, unless we act fast to figure out how to fix the way the economy works. The key is better management.
Let the games begin. 2024 is going to be… interesting. Whether its consumer debt, corporate default rates, banking worries or sovereign bonds there is plenty to be pessimistic about. The optimists think it’s going to be Goldilocks – what do they know I don’t?
China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..
esterday’s US CPI numbers look good at a glance, but the reality is the Western economies may face ongoing sticky inflation and long-term stagflation while reversing the economic damage of a decade plus of monetary experimentation. That requires new investment approaches.
Labour Leader Keir Starmer has announced growth is a core mission for the next UK government. He should look how Clarkson’s Diddley Squat Farm and the threat to obliterate my village of Hamble with a wholly unnecessary gravel quarry demonstrate how the UK’s local planning and over-regulation stifles growth, hope, and expectations. The process isn’t fit for any purpose. Bureaucrats have anything but the interests of local people in mind. Big money walks all over them.
It’s time to stop kidding ourselves. Brexit promised much but has been a disaster. The economy is contracting, investment in growth has collapsed, and there are no signs of Brexit bonuses. Time for a reset.
Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!












