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Growth

  • EU, Political risk, Global Growth, European Sovereign Credit, Geopolitics,
    September 10, 2024

    Déjà vu all over again in Yoorp

    Mario Draghi saved Europe in 2012. Yesterday he unveiled a new plan long on words and familiar ideas. Europe is aware it is approaching economic crisis – but prescribes the same old solution of Closer Union. It’s time for Europe to so something radical or become irrelevant.

    Plus – UK win stage 1 of the America’s Cup.

    read more
  • UK Debt, Political risk, Financial Crisis, Global Growth, Politics, Capitalism, Economy, Democracy, Geopolitics, Monetary Theory, Government, Sovereign Debt, Government Policy, interest rates,
    August 22, 2024

    Economic Cycles and Thinking Outside the Sovereign Debt Box.

    The global economy is reaching a nexus point as multiple cycles and challenges coincide – successful nations will recognise and exploit the new opportunities as they emerge. In the UK, it’s time for the new Labour government to stop trying to be marginally better tories than the Tories were, and embrace debt solutions!

    read more
  • Debt, AI, Global Growth, Big Tech, Capitalism, Democracy, Geopolitics, Sovereign Debt, Tech,
    February 20, 2024

    Nvidia – more than just a stock phenomenon, but a long-term Macro factor.

    Nvidia’s extraordinary rise comes from being the picks and shovels supplier to the AI revolution. It’s not just MegaTechs coat-tailing Nvidia that will win, but productivity gains from AI could counter the growing debt/gowth crisis in the West. AI is more complex than just a single stock.

    read more
  • Government Policy, Political risk, Politics, UK, Life Lessons, Rant, Capitalism, Economy,
    February 16, 2024

    Broken Britain. Recession. And how to get Broadband fixed.

    The UK is in “technical” recession. Broken Britain is the depressing reality. The bleak outlook will have profound and long-term consequence, unless we act fast to figure out how to fix the way the economy works. The key is better management.

    read more
  • Banks, Central Banks, Currency, Big Tech, Debt, corporate debt, Capitalism, Economy, Bonds, Boeing, Air Travel,
    January 8, 2024

    More of the same, and to the confoundation of EasyJet.

    Let the games begin. 2024 is going to be… interesting. Whether its consumer debt, corporate default rates, banking worries or sovereign bonds there is plenty to be pessimistic about. The optimists think it’s going to be Goldilocks – what do they know I don’t?

    read more
  • Global Growth, Capitalism, Economy, Europe, China, USA,
    April 18, 2023

    China vs the USA – Does it have to be war?

    China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..

    read more
  • Central Banks, Capitalism, Economy, Bonds, Inflation, interest rates,
    April 13, 2023

    Inflation, Rates, Recession or Stagflation – nothing is clear yet

    esterday’s US CPI numbers look good at a glance, but the reality is the Western economies may face ongoing sticky inflation and long-term stagflation while reversing the economic damage of a decade plus of monetary experimentation. That requires new investment approaches.

    read more
  • Politics, Brexit, Businesses, UK, Capitalism, Economy, Data, Government, Government Policy, Regulation, Amazon,
    February 24, 2023

    Note to Sir Keir Starmer: Clarkson’s Farm and the Hamble Quarry demonstrate how Bureaucracy is killing UK Growth

    Labour Leader Keir Starmer has announced growth is a core mission for the next UK government. He should look how Clarkson’s Diddley Squat Farm and the threat to obliterate my village of Hamble with a wholly unnecessary gravel quarry demonstrate how the UK’s local planning and over-regulation stifles growth, hope, and expectations. The process isn’t fit for any purpose. Bureaucrats have anything but the interests of local people in mind. Big money walks all over them.

    read more
  • Brexit, Businesses, Europe,
    February 14, 2023

    Brexit – when is the UK going to wake up to the brutal reality?

    It’s time to stop kidding ourselves. Brexit promised much but has been a disaster. The economy is contracting, investment in growth has collapsed, and there are no signs of Brexit bonuses. Time for a reset.

    read more
  • Central Banks, Global Growth, corporate debt, Debt, Financial Assets, Capitalism, Economy, interest rates,
    January 20, 2023

    Forget inflation – its interest rates that will set markets and drive new growth.

    Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!

    read more
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The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.

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