Is it just me that finds Christmas and the Holidays to be overly stressy? They will be over too quick, and we’ll all be back as confused as ever. Here are some thoughts and predictions for 2024. The one thing I guarantee: The World is Changing.

Would you rather lose your job to stagflation, recession or deflation? Argentina’s voters have gone for the populist option – good luck! OpenAI – I guess the genie is out the bottle.

Volatility in Treasury markets is setting off Global alarms. Economic numbers and earnings present a mixed picture of what’s occurring in terms of rates and inflation projections, but the reality is markets are highly vulnerable to rising uncertainty!

The markets are panicking about bond yields. There is little to panic about. Higher rates will normalise the economy – but the commentariat loves to make a problem into a crisis. Y’day the BBC got it badly wrong, confusing the cost of new debt with debt service costs.  

The Rugby World Cup is a reminder of all that is good, exciting and honest about 30 folk beating the crap out of each other. Enjoy the frenetic mayhem! Meanwhile, what is John Authers trying to tell us. And where are we this 9/11?

Are current markets turning into a bad dream? There are so many reasons to be fearful, but giving into our terrors shows how driven by bias we are. A Hornet in the Bedroom Moment can make everything look bad. The reality is… probably not as bad as it looks!

Everyone seems worried about the sustainability of Sovereign Bonds in terms of rising rates, interest burdens, debt quantum, and who will keep buying. Relax. Bonds have weathered worse. But there are ways to use Sovereign debt better.  

US Inflation looks to have been beaten, but that might not mean very much if the global economy is still headed into recession. Rates and consumption are a lagging problem for the markets, and there is a chance even strong economies will stall.

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.