The AI sector looks likely to be the biggest bubble in market history – until the next one. When it pops – and it surely will – the effects will resonate round markets. Like all good Snake Oil scams, AI has promised everything and claims divinity. Too many folk have embraced the hype and hopes of easy money – but that has always been the way of markets.

The Americans have passed rules to regulate and define the crypto industry. The first rule of finance is all rules are arbitraged. The second is that regulation strengthens incumbents. Very, very different to what Nakamoto and the original crypto acolytes envisaged for free, decentralised finance! Ha Ha Ha!

When markets are hitting record highs is the time to be cautious, and ask why? US Stocks and Bonds are at record levels, despite the current uncertainties and policy instability. What’s driving it is a mix of themes, including market evolution. But also a market potentially complacent about approaching threats.

What’s not to like as the sun rises on a beautiful spring morning? Well… As the UK watches its public infrastructure tumble into wrack and ruin as a result of privatisation and financialisation, the USA is excited Elon Musk is doing such a great job at DOGE saving their tax-dollars. They might want to avoid a look at the shaky edifice of Musk’s tech empire as its core, Tesla, increasingly looks a hollow sham.

I’m delighted to announce we’ve signed an agreement in Cairo to build a new $7 bln private sector petrochemicals plant in Egypt, a development that could herald a new era of economic growth and the emergence of the future Middle Sea economy for the Middle East, Europe and North Africa.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th Jan 2025 – Beware rising complacency [...]

It’s clear 2025 will be a challenging year – there are plenty of issues to cause markets headaches, but opportunities in abundance. The primary problems may come from the ongoing politics of disruption and the likelihood electorates are going to remain profoundly disappointed.

2024 was an “interesting” year – big questions about inflation, growth and geopolitics were all asked, but answers remain difficult. The politics of populism now dominates the agenda. Issues like climate change and ESG have been pushed aside. The lessons don’t change – trade what the market thinks, but invest in facts and likely outcomes.

Bitcoin breaking $100k was a judder moment in a market already awash with signs and portents suggesting irrational exuberance has gone too far, and a correction is coming. Meanwhile… the UK govt declares war on Porridge.

Sequels oft disappoint. Just how will the world change after Jan 20th 2025? Maybe not the way we expect. Meanwhile, the global Alternatives markets are becoming increasingly frothy as the big firms bid up for market expertise and scale. Does that suggest they might be missing something?