Something different for Morning Porridge Readers this morning, a guest post from my chum David Murrin.

Trump and Putin will agree Peace in Ukraine. The USA will walk away, leaving Europe to deal with the consequences of an unbeaten Russia. A new cold war will descend. That could provide the spark for a European rebirth around rearmament and a new unity of purpose, or instability as Russia seeks to pick off weak nations.

The weekend’s events in Syria highlight dramatic and swift change at the core of the geopolitical instability that’s defined the last few years. The cost in blood from conflict has been horrendous, but from a market and stability perspective there is now more to be positive about. Russia and Iran’s defeat in Syria could even trigger global recovery!

Europe is waking up to the reality of conflict, acutely aware of the need to defend itself, to invest and produce weapon systems to deter aggression in what is a vastly changed geopolitical landscape. With the right approach it may even become a driver of growth across the European economy.

Europe will face massive difficulties rejigging NATO for a post US era. It will be vulnerable to Russian disinformation while facing acute production, labour and cooperation instabilities. But if it could be done…..

This week’s Munich Security Conference saw much discussion around the Ukraine end game. The war is destroying Ukraine’s manpower – but what price peace? The West has to understand Russian weakness, and its own limits to impose a long-term and effective future for Ukraine – it rather depends on politics.

The Chinese economy has stalled, buffeted my multiple issues from banking, property and demographics. What happens next? The consequences of a China crash or downturn will be multiple and could create further instability.

 The Bank of England is worried about Private Credit Markets – good to know they’ve heard of it! Their concerns are valid, but it’s a market very different to banking and doesn’t share the same systemic risk triggers. Its full of opportunity!

The Canary Wharf saga has been “interesting”, but as demand for office space evolves, is it over? The events in Russia are a reminder to markets about instability, uncertainty and just how dysfunctional it could all become.

Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.