Everyone knows Europe is finished. Over-regulation, bureaucracy, a demographic bust, dusty old industries and the prospect of slow lingering decline.. Nonsense. The Sun may shortly rise on new prospects and growth as geopolitics and new trade develops. Might be time for the great rotation back across The Pond.

Friday August 1st might go down in history as the day the US Treasury Market died. There was an art to reading US Data. It relied on trust. Now that is broken – if you can’t trust the data, what can you trust? Other govt bond markets are available.

While Trump fumes at Jay Powell for not slashing rates, Scott Bessent is the adult-in-the-room minding the Fed isn’t too battered by the President’s harangues. No doubt they chat about the structure of the market and the rising risks to it – including stablecoins.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves should be angry, not tearful. The multiple crises facing the UK’s funding have been long-term in creation. Reeves has the opportunity to fix them. The recipe is simple; common sense, political discipline, a dash for growth and a spicing of Gilts Liability Management. C’mon Rachel… you can do it.

A heatwave in London is unbearable – and we’re about to experience the third of this long, hot, summer. Elsewhere, increasingly chaotic climate events are triggering unpredictable weather disasters – including the tragic floods that hit Texas. We can’t deny the threat – but we can mitigate the effects if we acknowledge the threat is real, and invest accordingly.

Never has the contrast in economic outlook and market expectations been so divided on either side of the pond. In Washington, joy as Trump’s tax cuts are enacted. In London, unremitting gloom and despair. But, hey-ho, Labour is going to fix the NHS! Give me strength….

Yesterday the Gilts market suffered a judder moment – but it was political theatre. The gilts market is fundamentally in good shape, well run, and a 3.5 times oversubscribed Gilts auction highlights it’s not under Bond Vigilante pressure. The UK is not about to default, beg an IMF bailout – no matter what Liz Truss apologists would like to believe.

Bread and circuses are one of the ancillary costs of dictatorship. Where do military parades come in that equation? The future lies in Bond Yields, but tradition and national spirit remain a key part of the decision to invest in nations.

Today’s UK Spending Review is Chancellor Rachel Reeves opportunity to overcome the largely unwarranted negativity around her, and seize control of the narrative to demonstrate financial, economic and political competency – vital to keeping the bond market open and receptive.

Yesterday, the UK unveiled its long-awaited Strategic Defence Review. The implications for markets, both for Bonds and Equity, and the cohesion of the West are massive. The SDR represents an opportunity and challenge.