Blain’s Morning Porridge March 9th, 2026 – What’s the plan? Keep bombing? What?
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning…. smells like victory.”
Global disruption – how likely is it to end quickly? Trump’s objective was to install a regime that will do his bidding in Iran. The appointment of Khamenei v2.0, the lack of a clear opposition, or defectors, makes a swift closure increasingly less likely. Global markets are pricing for a long, destabilising war with rising inflationary and geopolitical volatility.
I’ve just spent a bluebird week skiing in the Alps – blue skies and crisp pistes. After a swiftly written Morning Porridge, on Monday I switched off the world and tightened up my boots. Skiing makes me happy and smile a lot. My definition of good skiing isn’t fast – but controlled, and (above all) stylish (in a sort of 1970s way!) To cap a fantastic week Scotland beat France in the Six Nations, and our hosts, Italy beat England! Yay!
Looks like I missed an interesting week in markets….
Long coach transfers to airports and even longer passport queues are great places to catch up on podcasts and read market notes. As I read the reports, and Secretary of War Hegseth promising more to come, I could not but think about Col Kilgore of the US cavalry – the character played by Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now.
One of the things about long 40-mile ski days on the mountain are the vivid technicolour dreams that follow. Last night I dreamt I’d been invited onto some TV show to record an opinion piece on current market moves. I was prepped to describe the consequences of higher oil and gas prices, and the need to swiftly reopen the Straits to avoid an economic downturn. But the director was flaffing around trying to get me to wear a different colour of shirt, then the lighting and make-up. Eventually it was decided to do the piece live, and I was just about to respond to a great question when the anchor said we had to cut it short and go to breaking news about somewhere being hit by something.
I guess my dream sums up the current excitement: there is plenty to talk about – even though we still lack clarity around what the objectives of this war are. (I suspect a marvellous “insider” book about the “decision-making” that occurred around the war will emerge very soon after President Trump departs office.)
The bottom line is there is plenty of noise, but trying to construct the picture from all the bits now strewn across the floor, including the depth of American war stocks, the diminishing marginal returns from airstrikes, the economic consequences of higher energy price inflation and likely recession as Gas Prices decimate Europe, the geopolitical issues around what China’s intentions might be, and what will Russia’s windfall profits from its sanctioned oil mean for the Ukraine War.
Last Monday morning – before I went up on the hill – I scribbled a note: What Chance Of A Swift Reopening Of The Straits Of Hormuz?
I will stick with that thematic – the longer global gas and oil flows are disrupted; the more volatile the economic and geopolitical consequences will be. I concluded the real objective of the war is regime change – President Trump wanted a new Iranian leader he can control and direct. Simple as.
Simple regime change looks increasingly unlikely:
- The confirmation of Mojtaba Khamenei as the Iranian regime’s new leader will incense Trump – he’s the son of “martyred” President Ali Khamenei. It suggests the IRGC and regime are not prepared to surrender but to dig in. (And likely to be “dug out” by bunker busters.)
- There is no clear opposition alternative to the deeply unpopular regime. The shah’s son Reza Pahlavi has tried to present himself as a figurehead leader for widespread opposition to coalesce around, but despite cultivating the US right-wing, he’s failed to get Trump’s blessing. The Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) claims to be the real opposition but is described as a cult by its many detractors – it’s unlikely to have much domestic support.
- While Iran runs the risk of internal disruption for groups such as the Kurds, there is no sign of the non-IRGC Artesh (traditional Army, Navy, Airforce) switching sides.
The markets are now factoring in long-term disruption – and the Straits of Hormuz will remain the key friction point. The markets will rally swiftly on any hint of a settlement that might reopen them – including offers by Iran to open it to non-US aligned nations – I suspect in the hope China will take advantage.
Talk of G-7 reserves being released has caused oil prices to fall from an overnight $120 back to $106, but the big issue will be gas prices in Europe – which could trigger massive long-term issues as European nations attempt to rebuild gas reserves after a long, cold winter. The big stock slides in Asia are also gas related.
Where we go from here will be… interesting…
Will come back with a full dig into markets once I’ve cleared by inbox.
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital
3 Comments
Comments are closed.
Could this be the Lehman Brothers of 2026? At least the only good thing is that if this is the case Trump will be remembered as the single one person who caused it, and totally unnecessarily….quite a good place in history and well deserved. He’ll be damned for generations….nice one Donnie!
The Lehman of 2026 looks likely to be private credit fears – which I am thinking are overplayed, but will lead to a sell down..
Trump will be remembered as something completely outside the democratic experience… a throwback to a much earlier age.. I suspect his cabinet of yes-men (and women) will never be forgotten for enabling it.
As in Afghanistan, you have the watches, we have the time.