Athens and London? The power of positive politics is very evident in Greece. Curiously, the surprise appointment of David Cameron as UK Foreign Secretary might just hint at a positive outcome for the UK if it triggers a proper discussion on Brexit failure and our relationship with Europe.
It’s been a “meh” year for the UK markets, but they’re marginally up on the year. The outlook for a rusted economy, crashing discretionary spending, and an imminent housing collapse looks bad. As the UK electoral cycle kicks into high gear.. markets are in favour of change.
Lots going on out there – but what does it all mean? Markets have plenty to consider from rates, inflation, micro, macro, geopolitics and climate – but the core objective remains: generating dull, boring predictable returns in difficult markets.
It’s time to stop kidding ourselves. Brexit promised much but has been a disaster. The economy is contracting, investment in growth has collapsed, and there are no signs of Brexit bonuses. Time for a reset.
Global Markets have started 2022 on a stronger footing than many feared – the issue may be too much focus on short-term positives while long-term embedded problems remain unaddressed. Even the outlook for the UK may be improving – and a change in politics will allow the fundamental rot at the core of the economy to be cauterised.
Watch the Bond Markets. In bonds there is truth. Brutal, uncompromising, painful truth. When the crisis comes, it will hit bond markets first.
Christmas is coming, but plenty still to think about in terms of markets; from the lessons on Covid re-opening in China, what Tesla’s shareprice tells about the resurgence of common sense, and the prospects of 2 years of dither into the very necessary general election the UK needs to move forward!
The CBI think the next decade could be lost as the UK is swamped by stagflation, zero growth and disinvestment, and wonder what the government’s plan is? There isn’t one except to ignore the brutal truth of acknowledging the greatest mistake the UK ever made.
After some tumultuous weeks in global markets, where do we go from here in terms of the dollar, inflation, energy, China? It’s all terribly complex, but probably good news for some and bad for others. The UK is likely on the loser list.
The markets are distracted by a host of crises. Somewhere in amongst it all is clarity.. but for the time being its noise and nonsense!
