What’s not to like about Panto? Saxo Bank’s excellent Outrageous Predictions for 2026 are out.. Lets dig into why Sir Keir Starmer might consider rejoining Europe to peeve Nigel Farage, how China will dominate trade through Tech and a gold-linked Yuan, and why SpaceX is unlikely to be the first $1 trillion IPO.

There is a lot of noise in Gilts these days. The danger is it derails national confidence – even though much of the clamour is twaddle. The reality is all Governments face challenges, but the UK’s Gilts market is much stronger and more resilient that the right-wing press would care to admit.

The debt crises that apparently threaten to engulf Paris and London are very, very different. Paris is in genuine financial and market trouble. London has a perception problem.

Both crises are rooted in political/fiscal miscalculations and the widening polarisation between political populism and conventional politics. The crisis in Paris is very real, but the one in London is largely driven by Doom-Scrolling financial misdirection of doubtful right-wing provenance, looking to snipe the centrist Labour govt.

If there is one thing we Brits are really, really good at its making things difficult for ourselves. We talk ourselves down and fall into doom and gloom, despite knowing for certain is the sun will come up tomorrow… “Things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope!”

King Charles played a blinder in Windsor last night, making Trump feel regal. But the reality is Europe and the UK have difficult decisions to make. Do they remain aligned with a post-hegemonic USA slipping into autocratic polarisation, or do they seek closer Asian connections, including China? There are massive Economic and Geopolitical risks ahead.

Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth gives a masterclass in how we should think about inflation.

The UK faces a tough choice: a trade deal with the US or re-engagement with Europe. In Trump world these are mutually exclusive outcomes. Trump wants to boast about the trade deals he’s signing. Its time the Sir Keir Starmer got a bit UK First in how we respond. Too many strings could be attached to a US deal.

The UK chattering classes are delighted. They’ve finally got something they can all agree on – it’s all Labour’s fault. However, that leaves one itsy-bitzy problem? We all agree this lost are useless. The last lot was even more useless. How and who is actually going to fix the UK? I prescribe a course of pragmatic reality and primal screaming….

The US election remains too close for the pundits to call, but from a trading perspective the contrarian Trump loses trade is well underway. Who knows what the rest of this week will bring, but it’s unlikely to be certainty or stability.

I am not particularly worried about tomorrow’s UK budget statement, but from the noise you’d think it’s the end of the world. I suspect there are elements of the UK’s political blob who will be very happy for Rachel Reeves to challenge Liz Truss in the incompetency stakes. She won’t, but the blob will try to undermine her – perhaps through the Gilts Market.