I am not particularly worried about tomorrow’s UK budget statement, but from the noise you’d think it’s the end of the world. I suspect there are elements of the UK’s political blob who will be very happy for Rachel Reeves to challenge Liz Truss in the incompetency stakes. She won’t, but the blob will try to undermine her – perhaps through the Gilts Market.
Labour might have a massive majority, but they are being mugged in broad daylight by the rump Tories who have persuaded the electorate they’re as bad as they were. That’s not good in an economy requiring big decisions to be taken and delivered competently. Labour is in danger of losing “Grip”.
The China Stock market rally comes on the back of hefty stimulus – and leaves many investors wondering if it’s sustainable or whether it’s wise to invest in China at this time. They may be missing the point – the China rally may be part of a wider Asian shift. Plus the end of UK coal.
Smart pundits are buying Uranium. While China builds out its nuclear fleet, the US looks set to favour fossil fuels while the UK’s nuclear plans are over-engineered and slow. Future economic leadership will be determined by energy. It’s a game the West could well lose.
Its little surprise to learn how well the Right has done across EU Elections. The UK will vote for the centre, but it’s likely the right will coalesce into a single stronger Right-Wing party post-election. What does it all mean for markets?
The best way to honour them is to ensure we never have to do it again.
Europe will face massive difficulties rejigging NATO for a post US era. It will be vulnerable to Russian disinformation while facing acute production, labour and cooperation instabilities. But if it could be done…..
Taylor Swift vs Trump – that would be an election! The US economy is robust and resilient. Europe remains repressed, inflationary and unstable. China is in a new deflationary era. Where else to buy but the US?
Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions are great fun, but the reality is 2024 is going to be about Elections, Oil and Energy Prices, Conflict and how China plays these three forces. China will dominate 2024 – for all the wrong reasons.
Athens and London? The power of positive politics is very evident in Greece. Curiously, the surprise appointment of David Cameron as UK Foreign Secretary might just hint at a positive outcome for the UK if it triggers a proper discussion on Brexit failure and our relationship with Europe.












