As we start a new week of dismal markets, depressing political news, rising inflation and lots of what next worries… relax.. the Sun will come up tomorrow. Not so sure about the economy though…
The outlook for markets remains dire.. no worries! But what chance governments, central banks, the economy and growth enablers suddenly turn up the good news and put it all right again…? Are we over-estimating stagflation and recession?
Two simple questions for Central Banks; what was their plan, and what is it now? The consequences of 14 years of monetary experimentation are upon us. From Macro to Micro, Boeing is a sad illustration of the consequences of central bank policy.
Central Banks and Politics will be the dominant theme this week/month/year. Politicians are anxious to show inflation and recession are not their fault. Blame Central Banks! The Politics of Blame has profound consequences for markets.
Macron’s victory has been hailed as a market plus, a win for Europe and common purpose, but it’s likely just a crisis averted, perhaps, for a few more years. Around the globe populism will likely be fanned by inflation, food and energy insecurity and become an increasingly destabilising force on markets.
Populism is a massive threat to markets. Inflation, tax-hikes, petrol costs, poverty, political mismanagement and a host of other failings could further destabilise the West, while markets seem determined to stay euphoric whatever the evidence to the contrary.
As a difficult 1st Quarter-End approaches, markets look fraught, but so do the fundamentals of the Western Free Market Economies – Capitalism needs maintenance and repair work on dishonest politics, immoral companies and broken bureaucracies.
How much has Covid changed people, markets and the way the global economy works? The event has triggered significant phycological, behavioural and expectational changes across society, and we can only guess how they will ultimately play out in terms of consumption and politics. It ain’t over till it’s over!
The problem with money is there is just too much of it, and all the wrong people have got it.
As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.
