Central Banks and Politics will be the dominant theme this week/month/year. Politicians are anxious to show inflation and recession are not their fault. Blame Central Banks! The Politics of Blame has profound consequences for markets.
Macron’s victory has been hailed as a market plus, a win for Europe and common purpose, but it’s likely just a crisis averted, perhaps, for a few more years. Around the globe populism will likely be fanned by inflation, food and energy insecurity and become an increasingly destabilising force on markets.
Populism is a massive threat to markets. Inflation, tax-hikes, petrol costs, poverty, political mismanagement and a host of other failings could further destabilise the West, while markets seem determined to stay euphoric whatever the evidence to the contrary.
As a difficult 1st Quarter-End approaches, markets look fraught, but so do the fundamentals of the Western Free Market Economies – Capitalism needs maintenance and repair work on dishonest politics, immoral companies and broken bureaucracies.
How much has Covid changed people, markets and the way the global economy works? The event has triggered significant phycological, behavioural and expectational changes across society, and we can only guess how they will ultimately play out in terms of consumption and politics. It ain’t over till it’s over!
The problem with money is there is just too much of it, and all the wrong people have got it.
As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.
5 years after Brexit vote and the sun still occasionally shines. For how much longer. Don’t worry… it could be much much worse..
GB News’ crushing of Militant Wokery has made the many companies threatening to boycott the new channel look very stupid. The woke agenda was basically “be nice”, but has been hi-jacked by militant cadres, becoming “be nice or else, and we define what is nice.” It’s a form of politics that can and will move markets.
Consequences are unavoidable. Pension savers are crushed by interest rate repression and the changing demographics of Covid, while the deluge of debt fuelled by low rates does nothing for economic sustainability.
