Rugby, Balloons and Employment Data – so much to consider this morning, but what this market needs a dose of common sense, understanding of central banks, and catharsis. Real interest rates and normalisation will provide solid foundations for real growth and recovery – not market froth!
Gold – can’t eat it, can’t use it, but its everything crypto never was: tangible, exchangeable, a store of value, and a kitty for when things get tough. In uncertain markets…. Don’t forget the yellow stuff.
Jerome Powell signalled a slow-down in interest rate hikes – and markets loved it. But did he just make a long-term mistake by not decisively signalling the end of the era of monetary and market distortion? There are lessons to be learnt, not least being the role of inflation in a buoyant economy.
Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.
The Fed just aggressively hiked 75 bp in the midst of the first major correction since 2009, making clear the game has changed, and we’re into a whole new cycle. While the market correction remains ongoing, when it flips, it will flip swiftly. Already there are positive signals to be seen – but only if you look outside the box.
Dead Cat Bounce or a renewed upside trend? The range of opinions and views on where markets are headed is diverse and confused – will bonds and stocks recover, or will energy, food and inflation shocks further destabilise sentiment. These are dangerous times, but fools will always rush in.
The outlook for markets remains dire.. no worries! But what chance governments, central banks, the economy and growth enablers suddenly turn up the good news and put it all right again…? Are we over-estimating stagflation and recession?
Markets look distinctly soft, and vulnerable to further downside pressure. The gaps between value, hype and narrative are becoming clearer – spelling opportunity, but also raising the risk of a crash.
After the brutal lessons of April, May will set the tone for a new market – lots of threats, but full of opportunity.
The shocking return of the Taliban dominates the headlines. It has critical implications for markets. Biden’s loss of credibility creates many hurdles and could drive the US towards isolationism – bruised by yet another flawed foreign adventure. Meanwhile, markets struggle with inflation and climate consequences.