Blain’s Late Afternoon Porridge, Monday 18^th, May – The Truth and Financial Media risk becoming strangers

“The past is erased, the erasure is forgotten, and the lie becomes the truth.”

To understand markets and the economy you need to understand how it really works; the where, what, when, why and how of the frictions that make for imperfect markets interreact. That includes politics. But trying to explain these factors is now subject to Social Media censorship – the reality is a distributed Ministry of Truth straight out of 1984. Social media now determines who can talk about markets and what they can say. Referring to incompetent politics gets you banished to the outer limits of conspiracy finance!

LINK TO PODCAST

Dear Readers

Apologies for no Porridge this morning. I was… busy.

I’ve been writing the Morning Porridge for nearly 20 years. It’s always been an “extra” I chose to do in addition to my day job as a financier in the Private Capital Markets. I write about markets as I perceive them – attempting to present the markets as a calm, rational, and pragmatic player of the game. The Porridge comprises my thoughts as a market insider, seeking to explain actionable insights as to what’s really occurring, and the how, why, and when of what participants are thinking.

My comments and opinions are the result of the experiences that have stuck to me over 40 plus years in the Game of Markets, and the daily discussions I have with my clients and other market folk.

I was asked to contribute to a TV Channel doing a piece on why markets remain so resilient despite the wall of worry about everything. They wanted “talking heads”, including myself, to explain what the market might be missing about current events, ructions and price moves. Not an uncommon request – which I am delighted to do. I gave them some outline thoughts on themes; and not all were negative. I explained about the dangers of FOMO, inflation, supply disruption, and the effects of AI under-tow, but also how much of the political angst is likely overdone.

I was then asked not to reference Donald Trump, the US Administration or politics in my comments. The host explained to me how the algorithms that drive social media and You-Tube are now trained to lock-out anything that mentions POTUS, US Politics, Tariffs, Iran or such. The TV host wants the show to be seen by as many people as possible, therefore it has to conform to Social Media algos.

Algos are not the truth.

The bottom line is the power of Social Media ensures anything negative is kept out of the feeds of listeners seeking financial insights and news. One might suggest anything that even hints at the President’s role in the current conflicted confidence of markets is likely to be dumped into the political conspiracy bucket.

That social media distorts the consequences of the News is hardly news, but what’s changing is the expectation that news-deliverers, opinion formers, and commentators are now directed by what will be presented, rather that the news itself. And to get hits, likes and positive vibes, some commentators are increasing willing to toe the line. We know that the White House has paid social influencers enormous sums to disseminate its talking points, and that social media billionaire owners are happy to reduce their taxes by supporting MAGA narratives.

Such propaganda is not new, but media and truth manipulation is a problem for me. Politics are significant. And the performance of markets is an important influence on the tides of politics. To not build the likelihood of political dumbf*c*ery – like the Iran War – into market analysis would be dishonest to my readers and diminish my own credibility.

Politics are an important dimension of the market driven economy – and it’s impossible to remove them from the discussion. Markets are about confidence – and where political competency creates significant risks, then you simply can’t ignore politics or political figures.

Bad decisions have consequences, and to pretend otherwise is just bollchocks. To ignore politics would be dishonest to readers, listeners and viewers.

If you want to garner your market insights sans politics, then there are channels I can suggest to you. These channels want your details and emails so they can not only market direct to you, but market you as the product to buyers which includes politicians. This is not new. What is new is just how coercive the media is becoming.

With the latest revelations about how much the US president has been trading the markets – and the very clear inference of inside trading, how long before your vote becomes a commodity political parties will actively bid for? And if we don’t talk about it now – I guarantee you will not have the opportunity to raise it in the future.

A few years ago, common sense and honesty meant it was conspiracy theorists and the crypto-sphere who were banished to the dark outer orbits of the financial markets. Today, despite our concerns about financial truths, rising corruption, and the blatent dishonesty of large swathes of crypto, these folk have increasingly been enabled to gravitate towards the centre because social media has learnt to monetise them effectively.

The folk who actually understand and fight for markets are the ones who are now in danger of exclusion. If we can’t talk about politics today because it doesn’t suit the billionaires behind Social Media, what will we be excluded for tomorrow? Discussing data on employment, inflation or conflict – like the US reporters accused of treason for their reporting of the Iran clusterfuck.

If you want to understand markets – time you bought a subscription to the Porridge. Yes, at £10 per month it costs as much as some papers – but they are owned by folk with agendas and depend on views – which are at the mercy of the Algos.

I don’t. I just tell it like I see it.

And if Starmer, Trump, Merz, Puttin, Xi, Macro, Carney or other political mistakes are the problem – then I will say so.

Harumph…. 

Back with a proper Morning Porridge tomorrow morning…

Bill Blain

Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital

The Battle For Hamble is a proper grown-up examination of how bureaucracy has failed: a tale of Greedy Corporates, Bad Planning and Economic Illiteracy. It explains how a wholly unnecessary Gravel Quarry will be dug in middle of a prosperous village – putting 6000 jobs at risk. The truth is no one wants gravel, and the quarry company understands it’s not what you dig out, but what you stuff back into a hole in the ground that matters. Gravel sells for £30 a tonne – Landfill earns £150 a tonne to bury. Go figure.