The French Bond market threatens to become a crisis as yields widen and its’ politics look increasingly a zero-sum game. While we’ve been watching the antics in DC and the price of oil due to Iran, we’ve missed how swiftly a new European debt crisis has been brewing. If it deepens, it won’t be a simple repeat of 2010-12, which nearly crushed banks and triggered defaults. Europe’s second largest economy in crisis, and dispute with Frankfurt, could trigger even more massive instabilities.

Europe is a diverse, culturally rich and fascinating continent but increasingly looks an economic basket case facing economic and demographic decline. Its suffering economic PTSD after successive shocks in Banking, Sovereign Debt and now Energy. Now it’s being squeezed between an unreliable USA and China’s proxy, Russia. Maybe that’s the challenge it needs?

One rule of finance is “follow the money”. The ructions and rising doubts on the sustainability of the US Treasury Market and dollar in the evolving post-US era economy means it may be time for investment transition strategies – where will the future lie? What aspects of US and other Western Democracies will thrive, and how much more investible will China and, perhaps, India become? What are the risks?

In the past 15 years the US economy has left Europe in the rear-view mirror. While America booms, Europe appears to be flatlining. The question is why? Americans say it’s entirely Europe’s fault: bad policies, failing politics, and lack of unity. However, the consequences of the (as yet unresolved) European Sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the speedbump.

England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins!

Viktor Orban was a curious beast. A pragmatist and a populist who tried to play off Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Hungary is not yet solved, but it could be a transformational moment for Europe in terms of Populism and Unity.

There is something deeply unstable underlying current markets. They don’t feel right. Something has changed. What could it be? It’s likely to be how Trump’s misjudgements in Iran and over NATO have reset expectations and accelerated the end of the American Age. The implications are huge.

Gold surges through $5000 and markets remain distracted by the sturm et drang of words and events. The world is changing – but are we thinking about all the wrong things? The real issue for the future may be investment choices between authoritarian states vs nimble democratic nations.

It’s one year since Trump took office for a second time. It’s been dramatic. It’s been eventful – and it’s been destructive and destabilising. The winners are Putin and Xi. The losers are the West. But have we now reached peak-Trump? Europe is the key – the continent has to wake up to the coming opportunities.

Rising risks, geopolitical positioning, conflict, and strategic compression will be the themes for coming decade. Who will rise, who will fall? What are the implications for markets. Do not expect easy answers. This is unlikely to play out as anyone predicts.