Blain’s Morning Porridge April 14th, 2026 – What Orban’s end means for Europe and Populism
“All political lives end in failure.”
Viktor Orban was a curious beast. A pragmatist and a populist who tried to play off Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Hungary is not yet solved, but it could be a transformational moment for Europe in terms of Populism and Unity.
There is a lot of talk in the media about the “defenestration” of “illiberal democrat” Viktor Orban as premier of Hungary, what it means Right Wing populists, how it will impact Russia, and how it benefits Europe. (Actually, the famous “defenestration” (being thrown out a window) happened in Prague. Not Budapest.) The noise around Orban’s defeat obscures some important truths about politics, economics, democratic failure and the outlook for Europe.
The lessons from Orban’s fall from power are legion.
Orban was a canny populist politician. You don’t dominate your nation’s political scene for a quarter century (and more) without being smart and effective. While other European leaders were struggling to win cobbled together coalitions, Orban won a string of successive landslide victories through his naked populism, delighting his voters as he identified issues like immigration as vote winners.
But the downsides were multiple. He rewrote the constitution to favour his party and controlled the media creating his version of autocracy that was evolving into a Kleptostate – where laws didn’t apply to friends and family who got wealthy from the nationalised state while the nation flatlined, and corruption was becoming the norm. Rule 1 of successful Capitalist Economies is the Rule of Law and equality. Hungary massively underperformed the former Warsaw Pact states that fully embraced democratic capitalism like Poland and the Baltics.
As a pragmatic populist he ruthlessly exploited his relationship with Putin’s Russia – seeing the opportunity to use cheap Russian energy to boost the economy even as the rest of Europe disengaged. That was a challenge to Europe’s security that should have sunk him years ago had it not been for the curious support of MAGA/Trump world. With one breath JD Vance furiously attacked Europe for its foolish reliance on Russian gas, and in the next praised Orban for doing exactly that!
The biggest threats to the success of new premier Peter Magyar in his reform programme will be energy costs without Russian energy (meaning a swift reconciliation with Europe), while untying the webs of corruption that now hold state businesses together. (A massive opportunity for some smart hedge funds and private credit lenders perhaps?) He has to achieve these goals smoothly without triggering a shock recession that would immediately see the popularity of his new government tumble, opening the potential for Hungary becoming a European equivalent of a failing state. (Think UK premier Starmer’s failure to capture the narrative despite his landslide victory in 2024!)
The good news is democracy and the power of the ballot box triumphed in Hungary – without a drop of blood being spilt. Many feared Orban would go full autocracy, deny the results if he lost, and seize power. (Rumours say he tried to rewrite the constitution to make himself President with enhanced powers, free of such pesky votes.) But he didn’t. He conceded and stepped down – maybe because he thinks Magyar will fail and he will be invited back?
Under democracy the beaten former government still has a voice. As Magyar struggles to address reform, create growth, and reverse Orban’s “constitutional” improvements, he will come under mounting pressure. The fat lady has not yet sung.
So why did Orban fall? What are the lessons?
In his early days Orban successfully used Europe to fund the reconstruction of the Hungarian economy, but he quickly became a festering sore on the conceptual ambition of European unity, thus ensuring it turned against him. He tried to play off Moscow vs Brussels. He used Hungary’s veto as leverage over Brussels, but he should have watched Brexit more closely: the EU neither forgives nor forgets. Brussels turned off the cash and looked the other way as the even cannier Ukrainian President Zelensky turned off the Russian oil, putting an energy drain on the economy – the major reason he was voted off in Sunday’s election.
Orban understood the real power of the EU – every time Brussels, or the ECB in Frankfurt, legislates a lending programme, or approves borrowing, a little piece of each EU’s members independence dies, and a real European Union gets closer, making national parliaments less relevant.
Most European politicians get that – accepting Europe as a single united polity will offer better access to funding through larger capital markets, sustainability, growth, security and the scale Europe will need to thrive in a new geopolitical reality where Asian markets will become dominant. We’ve known for decades that European unity, fiscal and monetary union being the critical components, won’t happen overnight. It will happen bit by bit, but the removal of Orban and a move towards getting rid of national vetos, puts Europe on course for success.
Petty populists – the Right-Wing dinosaurs like Farage, Orban, Le Pen, and Weidel fear Europe’s creeping unification because as it inevitably expands its fiscal and monetary oversight, their opportunities to be big fish in small ponds become less relevant.
The Populist right-wing tide that threatened Europe is now receding. Orban was beaten at the polls, and young voters are now turning against the right – seeing them as the politics of grumpy old people, as they are attracted to the redistributive polices of the new left. Call them Greens, Progressives, Corbynites or outright Socialists, young folk want futures where they can live free of debt in secure accommodation and the world is less evil. Dream on. But they have a point.
For the last 10-years, the dominant power in Western Politics has been Donald Trump – even through the post Jan 6th ’21 years when he was effectively exiled in Mar-a-Lago. What really peeved European liberals (oh… the word Trump hates most… liberal) was how Orban sucked at the teat of MAGA adulation. Trump and his acolytes were immediately drawn to Orban, a European who understood and reflected their world view: deeply conservative, self-interest, anti-immigration, anti-woke, trad-volk (women knowing their place and lots of blond babies), god-fearing and a leader willing to act rather than just talk. Trump was willing to support Orban even though he knew it appalled every other European leader.
Across Europe few will miss Viktor Orban, and the already low opinion most voters hold of Trump will further reduce because he supported him.
Aside from a small rump of extreme and very noisy right-wing supporters aligned with the “manosphere”, most young voters across Europe are deeply sceptical of Trump and MAGA. The political perspectives they form today will likely stick with them for the rest of their lives. As the Trump star descends on his failures in Iran, trade, ICE and his revulsion for climate change, Europe’s young voters are turning away from the populists that have ridden his coattails.
The multiple stories of how close confederates of the UK’s favourite populist, Nigel Farage, have been economical with the actuality around their tax affairs; Richard Tice’s recent run-in over withholding taxes on dividends, or George Cottrell being subject to “scrutiny” on his tax residency, or Nadhim Zahawi who was sacked as a Tory Minister over a $5mm tax “controversy”, are all the kind of headlines that remind young votes that the costs of populism and autocracy can be corruption… never a good thing.
Please don’t forget about my new book, The Battle For Hamble. It’s a proper grown-up examination of how bureaucracy has failed: a tale of Greedy Corporates, Bad Planning and Economic Illiteracy. It explains how a wholly unnecessary Gravel Quarry will be dug in middle of a prosperous village – putting 6000 jobs at risk. The truth is no one wants gravel, and the quarry company understands it’s not what you dig out, but what you stuff back into a hole in the ground that matters. Gravel sells for £30 a tonne – Landfill earns £150 a tonne to bury. Go figure.
Out of time, and back to the day job.
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital
