Blain’s Morning Porridge July 6th, 2026 – The World Cup, The Berlin Wall, and Soft Power vs Russia
“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist…”
England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins!
“C’mon England!”
Not words you would ever expect a Scotsman to say…. “Gentlemen in England still abed shall think themselves accursed they were not there (in front of their tellies at 3 am) and hold their manhood cheap while any speaks that watched them upon the bloody field in Mexico…” Well done, England! Beating Mexico 3-2!
Of course I did not watch. (Why would I? In the real world I support two teams: Scotland and whoever is playing England!) I expected to wake up to the news England’s hearts had been ceremonially hacked out and their bodies cast down the steps of the pyramid that is the Azteca. Nope. The World Cup is getting interesting. Bring on the Nogs! Engerland..! Engerland..! and we all like Vindaloo… maybe even in the Saracen’s Head in Glasgow? (maybe not…) Time to support the Auld Enemy!
Meanwhile, one of my great chums found himself on the front page of the Times this weekend. Steve has erected a piece of the Berlin Wall in his back garden. Lefty that I am, I consider the Berlin Wall to be a monument to the success of Free Markets, Democracy and Freedom. A similar chunk stands outside the Imperial War Museum as a reminder of who won the Cold War – a bloodless war the West won by outcompeting the Soviets economically.
One of Steve’s neighbours has complained “it’s an ugly slab of concrete” that makes him splutter over his cornflakes in the morning. He has complained to the local council which is now investigating it for breach of planning permission. Steve had no idea it needed planning (it’s not clear it does) and regards it as an Artwork (and having seen it in situ I agree with him), but it’s also history. It is not pretty – but neither is Picasso’s Guernica. Would South London whingers rather we forget why the West triumphed and precipitated the collapse of the USSR? Or why so many East Germans and the rest wanted the Wall to fall?
How is English success in the World Cup and a memorial to an Economic War won decades ago relevant to markets?
The World Cup matters and so does Economic success.
This week sees the NATO summit in Ankara, hosted by President Erdogan. Most of the teams left in the World Cup are NATO Members – only Morrocco, Argentina, Columbia and Egypt are not as I write! I wonder what the leaders will be thinking as they look around the room? Will the Norwegian premier Jonas Gahr Store be sizing up lame duck, Arsenal-supporting Keir Starmer as an indication Engerland is a soft option on Saturday night in Miami? (England is the favourite for the game – but still doesn’t look a likely competition winner.)
The World Cup matters because of the power of National self-belief. Soft-power, self-confidence and the sense of tribal unity that sporting success brings are marvellous things – contributing to the success and underlying strength of nations. The opposite is equally true – disunited, polarized, and divided nations become easy targets. (President Trump gets it – he would love the credit if the US does well. He has been accused of “unsporting-behaviour” for having his FIFA Dictator Infantino reprieve US player Folarin Balogun’s red-card, enabling him to play vs Belgium tonight!)
Confidence and belief matter when nations are under attack, exposing how resilient they are. Which nations are prepared and ready to fight? And which are not? Critically, which nations are resilient enough to resist their economies and political systems being undermined from the outside in. That’s the real crisis at the heart of the Western Alliance – why has the strongest military (and economic) alliance in history become so divided so swiftly?
A large part of this week’s Turkey NATO summit will be performative posturing in front of Trump – who has prefaced the summit with another warning about pulling US troops from Nato members that don’t meet his spending targets. No bad thing think belligerent Europeans – we aren’t prepared to be insulted, and the faster Europe takes responsibility for its own defence and deterrence, the better. The faster Europe stops supporting US defence primes and weaking its strategic security by being vulnerable to US tech and now, AI – the better. Reinvigorating European defence and building strategic tech security in a post American world order is a priority.
That’s a less good option than Europe and the US remaining united and aligned on the precepts of Free Markets, Democracy and Justice in the long-term as the geopolitical economy evolves. But that would require common interest – which Trump’s transactional America First instincts do not envisage.
It’s going to be fascinating to listen to what’s not being said at the summit – how is Europe is working towards regional deterrence in terms of weapons programmes, manufacturing and commonality. How can Europe step up to support Ukraine? Trump is happier to spend 90 minutes talking to his good friend Tzar Putin ahead of the summit.
On the face of it a strong Europe, confident and united, would have nothing to fear from Russia. The $30 trillion European economy (including the UK, Norway and Switzerland) is about 13 times the size of the now wheezing Russian Economy. 600mm relatively wealthy Europeans vs 140 mm dirt-poor Russian peasants? (Ooooh. Never under-estimate the enemy.)
Russia in now a wartime economy devoting a vast portion of its economy to the production of war stocks and materials – and supported by the productive capacity of China. Russian spends about 1/3rd of what Europe spends ($200 bln) on defence, but is focused on quantity over quality, adapting to what they’ve learnt on the battlefield, and spending it all on Russian specific tried and test munitions. Yep, that’s exactly what they did from 1945-1985 and look how well that worked out for them.
Europe’s defence remains an alliance of very different nations with different priorities and skillsets. As the UK has conclusively demonstrated time and time again, Military budgets are not spent well, and struggle in times of austerity. The Nato alliance, even without the US, would be a very difficult nut for Russian to crack – unless there was another way to undermine it.
The headlines in the UK last week about the sources of Nigel Farage’s wealth and his adjacency to funds “gifted” (US Readers – utter sarcasm alert) by crypto billionaires – raise serious issues about political governance and how vulnerable it is to interference and mistruths. Whatever Farage and his benefactors, jail-bird George Cottrell and “Thai” businessman Chris Harborne, are willing to say about the source of his funding (basically nothing!) it raises issues. Where did the money come from? Crypto is exposed to the proceeds of organised crime and to making foreign actors.
This raises the question whether the UK’s man of the people is being funded with Russian money? Enlightened Farage supporters will tell you his greatest failing is who he surrounds himself with.
Across Europe, Russia has engaged in Cognitive Warfare to spin its narrative, aiming to undermine national resilience, trust and politics using any means possible, exploiting cyber-crime, misinformation, fake news, troll-bot farms, deep fakes and political manipulation and electoral interference. It’s called FIMI (foreign information manipulation and interference). It’s a form of undeclared hybrid warfare and has become as much part of the battlespace as drones, tanks and fighter planes.
It’s succeeded beyond the Kremlin’s wildest dreams in terms of a US President than leans towards Russia and Right-Wing populist parties that are Russian supportive and willing to break European alliances rather than promote them. The effect is to undermine the resilience, unity, stability and certainty of the West. It’s difficult to counter – especially when elected leaders deny the veracity of electoral systems and the reality of how Russia fights its wars.
But the reality is… the west works. Russia doesn’t.
Out of time and back to the day job!
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital
Meanwhile, don’t forget about my new book:
The Battle For Hamble is a proper grown-up examination of how economies fail: a tale of Greedy Corporates, Bad Planning and Economic Illiteracy. It uses a wholly unnecessary Gravel Quarry in the middle of a prosperous village to illustrate the multiple failings and abdications of responsibility that have created Broken Britain. It’s about bureaucracy, money, exploitation and shareholders vs stakeholders. It’s about social injustice – asking why it’s ok to put 6000 jobs at risk so corporate bosses can reap bigger bonuses! Whether is the Hamble Quarry, HS2 or the abysmal state of UK armed forces due to bad procurement, read the book to understand how its broken process and bureaucratic indifference that is sinking Britain.
